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Thursday, June 16, 2011

KLCI Stock - BSTEAD / 2771 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)5,838,409,118 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(6.21-0.42)/0.5557 = 10.42 (Moderate)
Target Price7.78+0.42 = 8.20 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.5557, DPS 0.42)
DecisionWatching, buy when sell volume is low
Revenue decreased 6.1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.2%, eps decreased 46.3% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 22.4%, cash generated from operating just enough for operating expenses, however managed to generated cash from financing activities to cover other expenses, better liquidity ratio but but still at weak level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, receivables and payable ratio getting higher, CPO price still supported at end of April price, venture into aviation business, working on to involve in the land development, PHARMA business going to merge into Group
First Support Price5.6
Second Support Price5.15

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price8.1 (2011-02-07)
AMMB Target Price5.2 (2011-03-29)
HLG Target Price7.87 (2011-04-13)
ECM Target Price5.96 (2011-05-30)
CIMB Target Price6.45 (2011-05-31)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity12.10%
Dividend Yield6.76%
Profit Margin10.60%
Tax Rate20.04%
Asset Turnover0.5753
Net Asset Value Per Share4.49
Net Tangible Asset per share2.71
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.11
Cash Per Share0.66
Liquidity Current Ratio0.5766
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.4807
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1203
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.4359
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5614
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-35.2%
Days to sell the inventory32
Days to collect the receivables104
Days to pay the payables110

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The new Pharmaceutical Division reported pre-tax profit mainly to higher sales revenue while margins have also improved. The Division’s profit for the current quarter had not incorporated the result of Pharmaniaga Berhad which became a Subsidiary at the end of March 2011

- Higher pre-tax profit from Plantation Division’s for the current quarter than the preceding
quarter’s mainly due to the stronger CPO price which averaged at RM3,541 (Previous quarter: RM2,977) per MT, dividend income from Boustead REIT and a 9% increase in FFB crop

- Lower profit from Finance & Investment Division mainly due to a marginal decrease in contribution from the Affin group. Manufacturing and Trading Division registered a lower pre-tax profit during the current quarter on lower contributions from the building materials segment and the comparatively lower stockholding gain at BH Petrol

- Lower pre-tax profit from Property Division because having benefited from the recognition of fair value gain on investment properties and higher progress billings in preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.5557, estimate PE on current price 6.21 = 10.42(DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2646*2*1.05 = 0.5557(exclude RM52 million one off gained), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.08/8.8 (DPS 0.39)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1*4*1.1 = 0.44, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.11/11.14 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.08*4*1.05 = 0.336(0.08 is eps exclude non-repeatable income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.04/11.59 (DPS 0.325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4699*1.05 = 0.4934(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.3/6.58 (DPS 0.275)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4934, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.1/6.31 (DPS 0.275)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1241*4 = 0.4964, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.89/6.06 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0721*4 = 0.2884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.17/10.92 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0934*4 = 0.3736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.78/8.94 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1699*4 = 0.6796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.15/3.97 (DPS 0.3)

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