KLCI Stock - KGB / 0151 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	65,661,300 (Very Small)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(0.83-0.03)/0.12 = 6.67 (High)
Target Price	0.72+0.03 = 0.75 (PE 6.0, EPS 0.12, DPS 0.03)
Decision	Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment	Revenue decreased 37.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 42%, eps decreased 74.9% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.3%, no cash generated from operating due to high receivables increased but got private placement cash to cover loan repayment, weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, receivables ratio very high and payables ratio also slightly high
First Support Price	0.79
Second Support Price	0.76
Risk Rating	HIGH

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	22.14%
Dividend Yield	3.61%
Profit Margin	4.13%
Tax Rate	1.87%
Asset Turnover	1.1687
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.55
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.55
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.49
Cash Per Share	0.26
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.1657
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.1051
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.6396
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.7681
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4344
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	41.3%
Days to sell the inventory	9
Days to collect the receivables	188
Days to pay the payables	108

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt mainly due to the typical lower sales in the first quarter of the year

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.12, estimate PE on current price 0.83 = 5.92, after private issues eps = 0.108, PE = 6.57(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.12, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.5/5.17, after private issues eps = 0.108, highest/lowest PE = 8.33/5.74 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.095, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.42 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.095, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.63/7.05 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.03*3+0.01 = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.6/6.6 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.03*3+0.01 = 0.1, estimate PE on current price 0.77 = 7.4(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.7/6.65 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9/5.8

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