KLCI Stock - TDM / 2054 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	718,973,241 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.1-0.17)/0.4277 = 6.85 (Moderate)
Target Price	4.28+0.17 = 4.45 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.4277, DPS 0.17)
Decision	Watching, buy if CPO price not break the support line
Comment	Revenue decreased 22% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 17.6%, eps decreased 14.5% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.5%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting periods improving but payables period still long time, expect production still low until July, cpo price got some signal to increase, largely lower revenue in food division
First Support Price	2.7
Second Support Price	2.5
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	14.40%
Dividend Yield	5.32%
Profit Margin	36.08%
Tax Rate	22.45%
Asset Turnover	0.4523
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.24
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.23
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.98
Cash Per Share	0.9
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.8455
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.7244
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.3434
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.2672
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2067
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	30.1%
Days to sell the inventory	23
Days to collect the receivables	49
Days to pay the payables	188

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt due to lower CPO and PK production

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1258*0.85*4 = 0.4277, estimate PE on current price 3.1 = 6.85(DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4184*0.9 = 0.3766, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.03/6.63 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.23/5.75 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0933*4 = 0.3732(0.0933 is average of eps in FY10Q1 and FY09Q4), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.54/4.82 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0889*4 = 0.3556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/4.16 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2503*1.2 = 0.3004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.23/5.13 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = (0.0923+0.0418+0.019)/3*4*1.2 = 0.245, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.37/5.51 (DPS 0.14)

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