KLCI Stock - IJM / 3336 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	8,512,020,436 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(6.3-0.11)/0.4002 = 15.47 (Moderate)
Target Price	6.40+0.11 = 6.51 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.4002, DPS 0.11)
Decision	Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment	Revenue increased 16.2% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 20.9%, eps decreased 115.7% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 118.1%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover investing and financing activities hence still increased borrowing, weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio also high, CPO price still supported at end of April price, construction division revenue was high
First Support Price	6.15
Second Support Price	6.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

TA Target Price	6.35 (2011-01-03)
MIDF Target Price	6.48 (2011-02-24)
Credit Suisse Target Price	8 (2011-03-29)
CIMB Target Price	7.7 (2011-04-04)
Maybank Target Price	6.5 (2011-04-04)
ECM Target Price	6.59 (2011-04-20)
AMMB Target Price	7.74 (2011-05-09)
HwangDBS Target Price	8.7 (2011-05-09)
RHB Target Price	6.16 (2011-05-09)
HLG Target Price	6.61 (2011-05-30)
OSK Target Price	6.96 (2011-05-30)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	4.93%
Dividend Yield	1.75%
Profit Margin	7.16%
Tax Rate	92.85%
Asset Turnover	0.2958
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.65
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.6
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.72
Cash Per Share	1.27
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.1778
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.359
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.6402
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.2013
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.482
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	85.0%
Days to sell the inventory	256
Days to collect the receivables	184
Days to pay the payables	194

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt mainly attributable to the provision made against contractual claims, recovery of receivables and project losses in some of the Group’s overseas projects, and lower FFB production and sales volume as a result of shift in cropping pattern as well as the inclusion of one-off capital gain of RM63 million recorded in the Group’s Property division in the immediate preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1819*2*1.1 = 0.4002, estimate PE on current price 6.3 = 15.47(DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0765*4*1.1 = 0.3366, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.93/16.87 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0765*4*1.1 = 0.3366, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.93/15.92 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0662*4*1.05 = 0.278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/17.3 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2484*0.9 = 0.2236 (10% drop, exclude foreign exchange gained), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.58/19.5 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0621*4 = 0.2484 (expecting revenue and profit recover hence no decrease on eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.53/17.43 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.13/16.55 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.271, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.13/15.68 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3251, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.53/16.15 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2612, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.06/12.44 (DPS 0.25)

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