KLCI Stock - EKSONS / 9016 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	201,981,990 (Small)
Par Value	RM 0.80

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.23-0.025)/0.1206 = 9.99 (High)
Target Price	1.09+0.025 = 1.11 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.1206, DPS 0.025)
Decision	Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment	Revenue increased 4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 16%, eps decreased 32.2% and is fourth consecutive quarter decreasing(lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 70.8%), cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, lower liquidity ratio but still at high level now, higher gearing ratio but still at low level now, inventory ratio still high, affecting by weak USD against MYR, property division growing, benefit from plywood prices upwards
First Support Price	1.05
Second Support Price	0.98
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

CIMB Target Price

1.87 (2011-04-08)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	6.39%
Dividend Yield	4.07%
Profit Margin	4.68%
Tax Rate	-
Asset Turnover	0.7207
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.18
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.02
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.64
Cash Per Share	0.46
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.5052
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.4945
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.0847
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.1959
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1551
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	53.9%
Days to sell the inventory	169
Days to collect the receivables	29
Days to pay the payables	56

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The margins for the financial year under review were affected by higher logs costs and a weaker US Dollar

- The Property Development Division had not begun to recognise sales in the previous financial year. The division reported a loss of RM7.1 million in the previous financial year which comprised mainly of management and marketing expenses

- Although the Group does not export to Japan, the Group's plywood prices are expected to move in tandem and this should bring about some relief to the Group’s tight plywood margins

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1096*1.1 = 0.1206, estimate PE on current price 1.23 = 10.99(DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0261*4*1.05 = 0.1096, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.1/9.35 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0334*4 = 0.1336(use profit margin 6% from 93k revenue), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.76/6.96 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0342*4 = 0.1368(use profit margin 8% from 70k revenue), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.04/6.51 (DPS 0.05) (Amendment)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.11*0.9 = 0.099(0.11 is year 2010 cum_eps excluded 9.9 million and 10% negative adjustment for those tax refund), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.18/7 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.11, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.82/7.36 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.95/7.5 (DPS 0.02)

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