KLCI Stock - LPI / 8621 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	3,018,859,087 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(13.64-0.55)/0.7718 = 16.96 (High)
Target Price	12.35+0.55 = 12.90 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.7718, DPS 0.55)
Decision	Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more (especially from general insurance division)
Comment	Revenue increased 11.9% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.7%, eps increased 4.6% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.8%, cash generated from operating enough for borrowing repayment but not for dividend, general insurance revenue increased
First Support Price	13.4
Second Support Price	13.1
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

OSK Target Price	12.3 (2011-01-12)
RHB Target Price	12.37 (2011-01-12)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	12.79%
Dividend Yield	4.03%
Profit Margin	23.49%
Tax Rate	22.96%
Asset Turnover	0.3576
Net Asset Value Per Share	5.01
Net Tangible Asset per share	5.01
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.75
Cash Per Share	2.43
Liquidity Current Ratio	5.2944
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.7249
Liquidity Cash Ratio	2.2789
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.0496
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5121
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	124.7%
Days to sell the inventory	2863
Days to collect the receivables	142
Days to pay the payables	803

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The increase of revenue mainly due to higher gross premium underwritten

- The increase of profit mainly due to higher underwriting profit

- The increase in profit before tax for the said quarter was mainly due to higher investment income received

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1754*4*1.1 = 0.7718, estimate PE on current price 13.64 = 16.96(DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.6383*1.1 = 0.7021, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.27/17.73 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1685*4*1.05 = 0.7077, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.57/15.42 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.0303(10% grow from 0.9366), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.46/15.5 (DPS 0.5125)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.0303(10% grow from 0.9366), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/12.76 (DPS 0.675)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.0533(15% grow from 0.9159), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.94/11.53 (DPS 0.675)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.0253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/11.16 (DPS 0.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.0204, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.43/10.25 (DPS 0.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.979, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.88/8.63 (DPS 0.85)

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