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Wednesday, June 15, 2011

KLCI Stock - WCT / 9679 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,499,459,966 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.13-0.1)/0.1614 = 18.77 (High)
Target Price2.58+0.1 = 2.68 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.1614, DPS 0.1)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue decreased 27.9% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.1%, eps decreased 17.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.4%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses and still got cash generated from investing and financing, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, receivables and payables ratio at very high ratio but offset by working capital also increased 4 times, high material cost may impact property development and civil engineering & construction segments, new warrants which is going to dilute the earning per share
First Support Price3.0
Second Support Price2.8
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HLG Target Price3.85 (2011-03-01)
HwangDBS Target Price4.15 (2011-04-11)
Maybank Target Price3.75 (2011-05-10)
MIDF Target Price3.5 (2011-05-30)
OSK Target Price3.69 (2011-05-30)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.46%
Dividend Yield3.19%
Profit Margin15.70%
Tax Rate22.72%
Asset Turnover0.3428
Net Asset Value Per Share1.57
Net Tangible Asset per share1.57
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.94
Cash Per Share1.45
Liquidity Current Ratio1.6333
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.4667
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.7334
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.3123
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6581
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale66.3%
Days to sell the inventory74
Days to collect the receivables280
Days to pay the payables303

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1699*0.95 = 0.1614, estimate PE on current price 3.13 = 17.83(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0809*2*1.05 = 0.1699(offset higher profit from property investment due to profit from this segment usually not maintaining), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.95/16.01 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0809*2*1.05 = 0.1699, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.78/16.24 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1703*1.1 = 0.1873, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.14/14.26 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0441*4*0.9 = 0.1588, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.51/14.67 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.88/15.13 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/13.75 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0535*4 = 0.214, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.85/11.07 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/8.48 (DPS 0.095, economy crisis)

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