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Sunday, April 29, 2012

KLCI Stock - UMW / 4588 - 2011 Quarter 4

UMW HOLDINGS BERHAD



Company Description
UMW HOLDINGS BERHAD is an international conglomerate that develops industries and manages partnerships. The Company is primarily engaged in the import, assembly and marketing of passenger and commercial vehicles, and related spares and manufacturing of original/replacement automotive parts; trading and manufacturing of a range of light and heavy equipment, including related spares for use in the industrial, construction, agricultural sectors, and manufacturing and trading of oil pipes and providing various oil and gas services, including drilling and pipe-coating. It also provides support services in the form of after-sales service, travel and insurance. Other activities include marketing of a range of established agency lines in the automotive field, and rebuilding and repair of heavy equipment and diesel engines. In November 2008, it acquired UMW Malaysian Ventures Sdn Bhd. In January 2009, the Company closed business operations of UMW Auto Parts (Thailand) Co, Ltd.

Company Info
Listing Date1970-11-17
Market Capital (Capital Size)9,147,741,487 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50
BoardMain
SectorConsumer Products
Major IndustryAutomotive Manufacturing & Distribution
Sub IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Websitehttp://www.umw.com.my

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(7.83-0.031)/0.5745 = 13.58 (Moderate)
Target Price8.04+0.031 = 8.07 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.5745, DPS 0.031)
DecisionBUY if stock price drop to below SMA20 and got strong buy volume than sell or wait until near to Bolinger lower band
Comment
Revenue decreased 5.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.1%, eps decreased 70% but higher than preceding year coorresponding quarter 169.1%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but still spent 0.2% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, slightly better liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at high level now, slightly lower debt ratio but still near to historical high, all repayment period is good, higher inventory can indicate still good prospect from Automotive segment, O&G segment growth and got turnaround from loss
First Support Price7.45
Second Support Price7.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
BIMB Target Price8.11 (2011-01-13)
ECM Target Price7 (2011-11-25)
UOB Target Price6.9 (2011-11-25)
Affin Target Price7.25 (2012-01-12)
MIDF Target Price7 (2012-02-27)
CIMB Target Price7.2 (2012-03-05)
Kenanga Target Price7.45 (2012-03-28)
HwangDBS Target Price7.3 (2012-03-29)
AMMB Target Price7.3 (2012-04-02)
HLG Target Price8.25 (2012-04-02)
RHB Target Price7.3 (2012-04-05)
OSK Target Price8.38 (2012-04-16)
TA Target Price8.54 (2012-04-18)
Maybank Target Price8.35 (2012-04-23)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.01%
Dividend Yield3.96%
Gross Profit Margin0.00%
Operating Profit Margin8.17%
Net Profit Margin9.08%
Tax Rate42.91%
Asset Turnover1.294
Net Asset Value Per Share3.65
Net Tangible Asset per share3.48
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.01
Cash Per Share2.23
Liquidity Current Ratio1.8463
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.3329
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.9054
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.1476
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.467
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale17.9%
Days to sell the inventory44
Days to collect the receivables33
Days to pay the payables56

Technical Analysis
SMA 207.481 (Uptrend 44 days)
SMA 507.264 (Uptrend)
SMA 1006.953 (Uptrend)
SMA 2006.721 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.144091 ( 0.009925 )
Signal (9)0.113676 ( 0.007604 )
MACD Histogram0.030415 (Bullish trend 12 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q4 was from Equipment and O&G segment but higher pbt was from Automotive segment

- Lower revenue in Automotive segment due to disruptions in the supply of critical parts caused by the massive floods in Thailand. This had adversely affected the timely delivery of certain Toyota models to customers but got higher profit due to favorable exchange rates for USD, lower selling and distribution expenses for run-out models and increase in sales volume of Perodua vehicles

- Higher loss in Equipment segment due to substantial provision for a maintenance and repair contract of an overseas subsidiary

- O&G segment got turnaround from loss to profit but unfavorable movement in fair value of overseas quoted investments coupled with impairment of certain assets and investments results the loss

- Lower revenue in Manufacturing & Engineering segment than FY10Q4 mainly due to switching of the power steering system from hydraulic for certain new models that included the new Perodua Myvi. Sales of 4-wheeler absorbers also dropped with car assemblers expanding their sourcing to countries like Indonesia and Thailand but still higher profit due to in FY2010 got provision for incidental expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 5584182*0.12/1166472 = 0.5745, estimate PE on current price 7.83 = 13.58(DPS 0.31)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.1126+0.1451)*2*1.05 = 0.5412, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.58/11.23 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.1126+0.1306)*2 = 0.4864, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.16/12.28 (DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1306*4*1.1 = 0.5746, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.62/11.23 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4486*1.1 = 0.4935, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.45/13.48 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.57 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)

UMW latest news (English)

UMW latest news (Chinese)



Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdategros_moper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-02-2420114N/AN/A0.0750.91%9.01%3477333135564053155681381241508075029860.04360.43121047674248925601320918558418213176015504337705732143253767168340521398481166472116647281419742011-12-31-8.17%9.08%42.91%1.29416.18733.653.482.012.231.84631.33290.90541.14760.46717.9%443356
2011-11-24201137.116.380.1353.07%8.20%36914371007907241415410656731691694521790.14510.387910568696505255912049495516137115691542268166082121384747342347341322118871165858116585878695412011-09-30-10.60%11.22%27.47%1.279-3.73.481.942.281.77381.28790.88311.1720.478117.2%433260
2011-08-19201129.06.140.12.37%5.11%316647563876353119816515191311782830100.11260.24301019090146531591259705553774274794368757439655213025767918623953123697881164620116462084085562011-06-30-9.32%9.85%28.60%1.2671-3.673.452.092.211.92711.4340.98961.08770.456618.7%403255
2011-05-25201117.556.75-2.72%2.72%322116032211603395383395381518321518320.13060.1306100335894443296135646455902932588399774625924221299073565859734322272501162358116235883108592011-03-31-9.62%10.54%23.47%1.2985-3.643.422.092.02.00351.41490.96161.04950.442818.6%443051
2011-02-24201047.436.950.0650.35%9.73%3438131128406392246561312938184515123980.01620.4486100411174774106123991852670111001795717262174109167211928453345864221307611142286114228681102302010-12-31-6.50%6.53%44.82%1.278815.8283.533.32.152.121.77391.27280.87051.18550.475516.8%443250
2010-11-22201037.726.740.1352.83%9.36%3087276940250834092210882821493944939470.13110.4336963086843531611150902527770774553455573513210816758541897995769117335451139185113918577464582010-09-30-9.62%11.04%23.09%1.287-3.623.372.021.61.78441.19180.75861.05490.45215.2%473053
2010-08-20201027.036.410.13.96%6.44%328207563152324422667473602116973445530.18620.3031971576043632271233092535253358215638619778581169755719595927454019720971136858113685873099962010-06-30-12.11%13.48%22.45%1.2459-3.623.371.911.81.88131.30940.87691.05920.449117.0%453053
2010-05-20201016.456.09-2.55%2.55%303315730331573050943050941328561328560.11720.117291690233961109123602252079142035191427636747016965206075612822618247461133984113398470193602010-03-31-9.14%10.06%23.87%1.2438-3.53.271.891.652.0921.4330.95110.99730.43218.8%453052
2010-02-23200946.696.110.092.26%7.77%2992338107208612491258465041110683823950.09980.3436882569639059281145909491976877035680341422079715112813305818773916990201112928111292868778952009-12-31-8.87%8.33%27.49%1.214717.98643.393.171.951.562.00111.33860.88091.0350.442618.4%483154
2009-11-20200936.515.90.052.64%5.68%279765177285232881745973791259382713270.11350.2446862300038469801079726477602058129955528734329415302182601236930618995241109415110941570004082009-09-30-8.59%10.30%21.92%1.2314-3.333.112.031.741.9161.32030.88261.04080.446118.9%483360
2009-08-21200926.56.00.061.71%3.13%25810694930872185468309205794311453890.07190.1315792832832897671055663463856132887743607986196152526410720219339813318661105336110533667978162009-06-30-7.03%7.19%22.70%1.406-3.243.052.021.221.57431.01210.58760.91820.414911.9%463255
2009-05-20200916.35.4-1.39%1.39%2349803234980312373712373765958659580.05980.059878117453076878112318347348675269813427030891528205815728466114435441102765110276563960372009-03-31-3.86%5.27%20.65%1.5533-3.283.071.891.341.66221.06920.64170.85190.393912.5%442951
2009-02-25200845.954.980.122.60%12.29%28901161276958127500812766851196885658380.10870.514178280413222621108316746054205972897280998919215613171308104161815196991100610110061059983242008-12-31-8.09%9.52%23.58%1.631310.60083.23.081.771.41.60991.01480.62950.91490.411711.7%452752
2008-11-24200835.74.820.13.47%10.13%3326175987946535378110016771526564461500.14030.410175738063170246993374440356049059554614661443155757055551589215634621087895108789558746332008-09-30-8.88%10.64%26.36%1.6596-3.133.011.791.451.56741.02480.62870.92960.418611.3%432951
2008-08-20200826.25.20.153.45%6.68%356816465532903549986478961517242934940.13930.269574300183033768105687643962502148372776221333501564740627857056516353051089192108919263717732008-06-30-8.60%9.95%27.15%1.6168-3.073.01.951.511.6221.06950.65780.90850.408313.0%463155
2008-05-23200816.855.5-3.34%3.34%298512629851262928982928981417701417700.13000.1300678151725344249673994247093775748483757357156606616241121976813462981090917109091772545982008-03-31-7.96%9.81%22.66%1.6146-3.012.942.261.231.74691.12540.63550.77280.373714.5%473456
2008-02-28200747.05.70.143.57%11.70%268976599761513155668562761429684691470.26840.8809649114524826018784594008544926996594818919241143121332178424102156722353259853259836216662007-12-31-9.97%11.73%26.88%1.53697.71975.885.771.182.951.70211.17660.75940.79310.382514.6%433158
2007-11-152007315.66.80.123.70%8.67%276971472863862326185407101391193261790.26300.6166606808123050338571493763048662984570474237995114025292510330505147075752898752898779348052007-09-30-5.76%8.40%17.38%1.6264-5.495.432.762.791.89461.39640.82170.79320.379916.3%353751
2007-08-172007215.014.30.22.95%5.16%250465845166721678263080921067521870600.20250.354858490762224424851603362465232089032958622427911417478696215583135733052721752721734796322007-06-30-4.01%6.70%13.15%1.2138-5.265.21.272.592.01361.38460.80690.80220.380324.2%584970
2007-05-1620071N/AN/A-2.28%2.28%2012014201201414026614026680308803080.15350.1535559523320665348550783528699233183284463330840114166351280279560142122352323752323728254792007-03-31-5.07%6.97%21.13%0.8212-5.115.051.072.732.2361.57020.98620.77290.369339.0%826691
2007-02-2720064N/AN/A0.1352.71%9.03%25828979950488197990754281918473059040.17970.598651025241715666826796338685876653568395696431699125491742561385113774051100451100419673652006-12-31-6.67%7.67%23.82%0.50626.43135.014.970.772.252.2691.5690.87680.67020.336264.4%139126158

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Derivative assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Leased assets (A-0)Leasehold land use rights (A-0)Other investments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Derivative assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Land lease payment (A-1)Other investments (A-1)Other receivables (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Derivative liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Other long-term provisions (L-0)Bank overdraf (L-1)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Derivative liabilities (L-1)Dividend payable (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)Provision for liabilities (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20114532146226119941514145657950622698147715529730788092208535-51711474299-391271329178893469319981421119104186434768687940426671157720589548949935675039374801320918
20113560625713225557014715478000221096748115777730320102280976-344691463643-379049349333835348315572030119242936431769089134732423581168295595469510246878810697251204949
20112540116374725557314560158049719936648519263629660272436916204269731283923-140000333164815160315562103219317016485167128121718492075939511684902214503198700971259705
201115409174773258480148976580993195969489013157029106642308347683937851419627-11071370528712197320991840819159416486281097926327359-536065781708502358628901356464
201045858563746258489145305981488193998493113246328523052195051683948971396135-2299633594807496884372721255185819965016641891075534883156647761046771455812948388421239918
201032966749158288883155995716551803551768841586027997601822946353564031424064--30702572391219578249731846161595208940117160612263114771361720712791398119005661150902
201022719236066286407153346316661728441892732490529233232046585353543511334953--2638787376651971023268192675559532744881515123977102356383769757622406308196081233092
2010131328250812687331503513171016711320164181052285518318709443535143321296294--2721676578742308516993189441259544461988995122478-288524700565403327790271236022
2009426733-2414981453676171416994020333193580278055317332903535-1303573--25539064188122107-1850598654883427071732-56204259874719874641837615981145909
2009326035-242899147318214078149673218452225881208563319288523535-1301805--28930666366921263-1597353429862932898456-66510315611888400590577280161079726
2009224988-211893149470914180149198219522208401197804413538573535-1295479--29312968139315680-926993429862199177599-1234844063858363601060477322421055663
2009119886-22696815262181428214882620776122280182593214745263535-1362700--28964868918323713-733491217423098262469--5365488142561091387445391123183
2008421331-13290614681211438415789922166086293179236215378023535-1453830--25461168330716027-7195174399518103115931-82063509851920324666207301901083167
2008322802-139420141290313881148680209899123095158059415733642791-1357956--23543975298219792-625988219719902208612-12081345754084367599050762903993374
2008223258-69746127835013983137791210969135589149473116488849112-1384991--28850373411121037-4842472197213579190565-1120824188488097501003618613271056876
2008115835-742811215902140811245902120381141711307310134717710364-1317572--24546578273113588-37890521972879128032--34040765453996528899574967399
2007422139-58923116415414178137099213107761711278355157358710364-1088941--22152063260713435-354163428576364104359-4781137567265892449909829107878459
2007327112-33931101409114425121798186845690221198931147553314989-8945924872-37343163850935786-45146422178477653762-7779128373763051465816679209857149
2007223354-3376594547414477112074188063256271097155136616214989-10649414872-30789665022735787-47267922899883260720-5189521886865300969681630054851603
2007122674-3361290019714529111921192935254361052102142979814989-9652561218-29397353659336154-55832422197857560505-3798819724952301068832553700855078
2006426724-215828226921458111906019537125436904208114878414989-917234--36843152343236442-34241226626711856079--14555569769355744347997826796

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesInvestment gain/loss
20114347733313542524635513623244525129336478128221
201133691437113750203551909833193851312352105622303
2011231664758923421261168562888336915691982718420
20111322116079692207803674029480761080143696113533
201043438131100680223022508532398401055251089712685
20103308727678723100504798728384111128054092713193
20102328207599272148462525029098001312974906610521
201013033157728261135693301284911699412305228586
20094299233868476586942061276891069581193618866
20093279765163157277025422258275899079430107619
200922581069421041601725425242501463933126237382
200912349803255551014320958228014432224343668897
2008428901166485319574501822706613904674825312644
2008333261759327498682791130587061078515425614013
2008235681649637299733056132918971069024556612577
200812985126663738724200942767462847555174712117
200742689765848255858313632452900877733795915237
200732769714404399750241782634261530606868014057
200722504658220709846218752426144390046339813885
200712012014296329851164781926472303263746910628
20064258289747164445719337242999158979218978307

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtOthersElimination/AdjustmentAutomotiveEquipmentOil & GasManufacturing & Engineering
2011415869118622418267531468351240172351
2011321333361702616123631416295067163668
2011226982258792232586472465286017174304
2011116705217812433914437750194005160567
2010419374227192610685422936223538184317
2010315785165292368797409454162310147459
2010219889233722563756406810151059163933
2010118240216632398305350361142390145524
2009411178193612373085295256156051153222
200939604151342232076297328144416129361
2009213388201352023888282071170303111554
2009115880199611721254300796217101114733
2008416924218622177232343760269810132489
2008319951298412588042422494196615128914
2008227315344362870748427677156864119996
2008114971273972395985345678147268108621
200742928421616223757530809523394101691
200738692174802141251372564159424105263
200721984226416186023338479617093095273
20071942724966149996130601785199136376
20064814312471187448926231234262596198

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtOthersAutomotiveEquipmentOil & GasManufacturing & Engineering
2011466130480093447171898573919
201132878443713135579222207552
201121050030387438233233043678
2011130265330200341205344949
201043763932958016671290753633
2010324720329134357341280313577
201021677400200425161931617189
2010134059319105273161923411966
200941101723610221669144547275
200931725021329422264248494229
200921492812782622627190353670
200917748733382277250362839
20084468423847436966470516710
20083290482653873925611053631
20082125152912923933130981485
2008191542081953855828378339
200741000522420355704543912455
20073218012496811276235137216
20072829764072942856504839
200711941651883132323749019
200641187122312148147415385

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

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