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Saturday, April 28, 2012

KLCI Stock - MBMR / 5983 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,204,617,354 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(4.94-0.06)/0.5326 = 9.16 (Moderate)
Target Price5.33+0.06 = 5.39 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.5326, DPS 0.06)
DecisionBUY if MACD start move toward to bullish trend and got strong buy volume than sell
Comment
Revenue increased 27.9% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 45.2%, eps decreased 26.3% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.6%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses but cash from borrowings more than enough to cover all expenses, gross margin slightly decreasing, weaker liquidity ratio from high to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio from below moderate to moderate level now, debt ratio increased to historical high, all repayment period is good, higher inventory can indicate better demand of sales of more car model
First Support Price4.9
Second Support Price4.6
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Affin Target Price3.45 (2011-06-03)
OSK Target Price3.69 (2012-02-23)
HLG Target Price4.25 (2012-02-27)
MIDF Target Price5.25 (2012-02-27)
Maybank Target Price4.6 (2012-03-09)
Kenanga Target Price5.38 (2012-03-28)
AMMB Target Price5.8 (2012-04-06)
HwangDBS Target Price6.1 (2012-04-18)
RHB Target Price5.05 (2012-04-19)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.25%
Dividend Yield1.21%
Gross Profit Margin6.49%
Operating Profit Margin0.37%
Net Profit Margin5.95%
Tax Rate5.75%
Asset Turnover0.8619
Net Asset Value Per Share4.51
Net Tangible Asset per share3.58
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.29
Cash Per Share1.01
Liquidity Current Ratio2.2004
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.4881
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.7016
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6566
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3571
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale24.2%
Days to sell the inventory57
Days to collect the receivables55
Days to pay the payables65

Technical Analysis
SMA 204.906 (Uptrend 18 days)
SMA 504.698 (Uptrend)
SMA 1004.079 (Uptrend)
SMA 2003.554 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.095884 ( 0.007428 )
Signal (9)0.113918 ( 0.004508 )
MACD Histogram0.018034 (Bearish trend 5 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to growth in sales of vehicles particular from the Perodua and Volkswagen dealerships

- Lower pbt mainly due to fee of take‐over exercise on Hirotako Holdings Berhad for which the acquisition related costs amounting to RM6.6mil

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1307129*0.1/245429 = 0.5326, estimate PE on current price 4.94 = 9.16(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.4606*1.05 = 0.4836, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.97/6.06 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2424*2*0.95 = 0.4606, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.64/5.8 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.52/4.71 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1154*4*0.9 = 0.4154, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.73/6.76 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1399*4*0.9 = 0.5036, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.77/5.7 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.5049*0.9 = 0.4544, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.22/6.45 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4772 (base on year 2008 eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.53 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0931*4 = 0.3724, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.4/6.69 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0916*4 = 0.3664, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.21/6.39 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0568*4 = 0.2272, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.65/8.98 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0381*4 = 0.1524, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.37/12.6 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0672*4 = 0.2688, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.59/6.58 (DPS 0.18)

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