KLCI Stock - WCT / 9679 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,977,981,078 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.42-0.09)/0.2108 = 11.05 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.95+0.09 = 3.04 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.2108, DPS 0.09)
Decision	BUY if MACD at very negative area and got very strong buy volume than sell
Comment	Revenue increased 34% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.8%, eps increased 24.4% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 32.5% of Group cash to cover all other expenses, gross profit margin largely drop, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, higher debt ratio but still far from historical high, lower inventory can indicate construction works lesser, higher property development cost can indicare more property development works, all segment revenue growth
First Support Price	2.4
Second Support Price	2.2
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

UOB Target Price	2.37 (2011-09-23)
CIMB Target Price	3.2 (2011-11-18)
Affin Target Price	3.56 (2011-12-28)
Kenanga Target Price	3.85 (2011-12-28)
RHB Target Price	1.97 (2012-02-09)
AMMB Target Price	3.05 (2012-02-24)
HLG Target Price	3.36 (2012-02-27)
MIDF Target Price	3.44 (2012-02-27)
ECM Target Price	3.07 (2012-03-15)
HwangDBS Target Price	3.75 (2012-03-15)
Maybank Target Price	3.15 (2012-03-15)
OSK Target Price	3.17 (2012-03-15)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	9.26%
Dividend Yield	3.93%
Gross Profit Margin	11.71%
Operating Profit Margin	13.36%
Net Profit Margin	11.17%
Tax Rate	18.15%
Asset Turnover	0.3375
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.78
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.78
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.51
Cash Per Share	0.97
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.5913
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.3452
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.5701
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.9052
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.6151
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	54.2%
Days to sell the inventory	102
Days to collect the receivables	259
Days to pay the payables	276

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	2.479 (Downtrend 31 days)
SMA 50	2.587 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	2.425 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	2.5 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.024805 ( 0.003811 )
Signal (9)	-0.02581 ( 0.000251 )
MACD Histogram	0.001005 (Bullish trend 6 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower profit in Civil Engineering & Construction segment than FY10Q4 is attributable to lower contribution from Middle East division

- Lower pbt in Property Development & Investment segment is due to decrease in revaluation surplus from investment property which amounting to RM14 million (2010: RM47 million)

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1754412*0.1/832234 = 0.2108, estimate PE on current price 2.42 = 11.05(DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0463*4 = 0.1852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.47/10.58 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.044*4*1.02 = 0.1795, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/9.75 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1699*0.95 = 0.1614, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.44/14.99 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0809*2*1.05 = 0.1699(offset higher profit from property investment due to profit from this segment usually not maintaining), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.95/16.01 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0809*2*1.05 = 0.1699, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.78/16.24 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1703*1.1 = 0.1873, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.14/14.26 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0441*4*0.9 = 0.1588, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.51/14.67 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.88/15.13 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/13.75 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0535*4 = 0.214, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.85/11.07 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/8.48 (DPS 0.095, economy crisis)

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