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Thursday, April 5, 2012

KLCI Stock - WASEONG / 5142 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,522,226,853 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.01-0.06)/0.1275 = 15.29 (Moderate)
Target Price2.04+0.06 = 2.10 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.1275, DPS 0.06)
DecisionNot interested unless MACD start moving up from very negative and selling volume is low
Revenue increased 7.4% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 29.5%, eps decreased 10% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.3%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses and still mainly use borrowings to cover other expenses, gross profit margin still not yet recover to above 20%, operating profit margin decreasing, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, debt ratio still not yet near to historical high level, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate works amount still in good trend
First Support Price2.0
Second Support Price1.9

Research House
OSK Target Price3.5 (2011-05-06)
AMMB Target Price2.85 (2011-07-04)
Kenanga Target Price3.04 (2011-07-04)
MIDF Target Price2.73 (2011-09-15)
ECM Target Price2.48 (2011-11-16)
RHB Target Price1.49 (2011-11-24)
Maybank Target Price2.6 (2012-02-23)
MIDF Target Price2.28 (2012-02-23)
CIMB Target Price2.35 (2012-03-26)
HwangDBS Target Price2.05 (2012-03-26)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.06%
Dividend Yield2.99%
Gross Profit Margin18.60%
Operating Profit Margin8.23%
Net Profit Margin6.52%
Tax Rate38.63%
Asset Turnover0.8229
Net Asset Value Per Share1.32
Net Tangible Asset per share1.17
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.71
Cash Per Share0.75
Liquidity Current Ratio1.8993
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.5479
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.7227
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.1931
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5218
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale38.5%
Days to sell the inventory69
Days to collect the receivables124
Days to pay the payables74

Technical Analysis
SMA 202.034 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 502.02 (Downtrend)
SMA 1002.012 (Same)
SMA 2002.068 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.007967 ( 0.003481 )
Signal (9)0.009055 ( 0.000272 )
MACD Histogram0.001088 (Bearish trend 1 day)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue reflects the recovery and growth in business activities

- Lower pbt was affected by generally lower margin due to strengthening of foreign currency exchange rates, especially Japanese Yen which is the currency in which a major component of the segments cost is denominated

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1097692*0.09/774884 = 0.1275, estimate PE on current price 2.01 = 15.29(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.028*4*1.1 = 0.1232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.25/14.81 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0338*4*1.05 = 0.142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/12.85 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0563+0.032)*2 = 0.1766, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.59/10.76 (DPS 0.05)

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