KLCI Stock - WASEONG / 5142 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,522,226,853 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.01-0.06)/0.1275 = 15.29 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.04+0.06 = 2.10 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.1275, DPS 0.06)
Decision	Not interested unless MACD start moving up from very negative and selling volume is low
Comment	Revenue increased 7.4% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 29.5%, eps decreased 10% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.3%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses and still mainly use borrowings to cover other expenses, gross profit margin still not yet recover to above 20%, operating profit margin decreasing, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, debt ratio still not yet near to historical high level, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate works amount still in good trend
First Support Price	2.0
Second Support Price	1.9
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

OSK Target Price	3.5 (2011-05-06)
AMMB Target Price	2.85 (2011-07-04)
Kenanga Target Price	3.04 (2011-07-04)
MIDF Target Price	2.73 (2011-09-15)
ECM Target Price	2.48 (2011-11-16)
RHB Target Price	1.49 (2011-11-24)
Maybank Target Price	2.6 (2012-02-23)
MIDF Target Price	2.28 (2012-02-23)
CIMB Target Price	2.35 (2012-03-26)
HwangDBS Target Price	2.05 (2012-03-26)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	10.06%
Dividend Yield	2.99%
Gross Profit Margin	18.60%
Operating Profit Margin	8.23%
Net Profit Margin	6.52%
Tax Rate	38.63%
Asset Turnover	0.8229
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.32
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.17
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.71
Cash Per Share	0.75
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.8993
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.5479
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.7227
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.1931
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5218
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	38.5%
Days to sell the inventory	69
Days to collect the receivables	124
Days to pay the payables	74

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	2.034 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 50	2.02 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	2.012 (Same)
SMA 200	2.068 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.007967 ( 0.003481 )
Signal (9)	0.009055 ( 0.000272 )
MACD Histogram	0.001088 (Bearish trend 1 day)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue reflects the recovery and growth in business activities

- Lower pbt was affected by generally lower margin due to strengthening of foreign currency exchange rates, especially Japanese Yen which is the currency in which a major component of the segments cost is denominated

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1097692*0.09/774884 = 0.1275, estimate PE on current price 2.01 = 15.29(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.028*4*1.1 = 0.1232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.25/14.81 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0338*4*1.05 = 0.142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/12.85 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0563+0.032)*2 = 0.1766, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.59/10.76 (DPS 0.05)

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