KLCI Stock - TCHONG / 4405 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	3,030,720,000 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(4.51-0.12)/0.3116 = 14.09 (High)
Target Price	4.36+0.12 = 4.48 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.3116, DPS 0.12)
Decision	Not interested unless got significant better result in coming quarter report or stock price can uptrend stick with Bolinger upper band
Comment	Revenue decreased 3.4% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4.7%, eps decreased 43.2% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 40.5%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, operating margin decreasing, weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at moderate level now, higher debt ratio at historical high, all repayment period is good, higher inventory can indicate still got good demand in Automotive
First Support Price	4.5
Second Support Price	4.3
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

HLG Target Price	5.1 (2012-01-18)
AMMB Target Price	4.2 (2012-02-27)
MIDF Target Price	4.5 (2012-02-27)
OSK Target Price	4 (2012-03-07)
Kenanga Target Price	4.67 (2012-03-28)
ECM Target Price	4.72 (2012-03-29)
Maybank Target Price	5.38 (2012-04-06)
CIMB Target Price	4.75 (2012-04-12)
RHB Target Price	4.6 (2012-04-19)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	11.69%
Dividend Yield	2.66%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	5.90%
Net Profit Margin	5.25%
Tax Rate	32.95%
Asset Turnover	1.2689
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.82
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.8
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.53
Cash Per Share	0.79
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.2124
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.085
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.6093
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.6456
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3913
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	26.8%
Days to sell the inventory	99
Days to collect the receivables	38
Days to pay the payables	34

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	4.499 (Uptrend 5 days)
SMA 50	4.438 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	4.323 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	4.461 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.017772 ( 0.000832 )
Signal (9)	0.020588 ( 0.000704 )
MACD Histogram	0.002816 (Bearish trend 21 days)

My notes based on 2011 Quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt in Automotive segment than FY10Q4 due to the disruption in production scheduling caused by the Thai flood crisis, increase in raw material prices and a more cautious consumer sentiment

- Lower revenue and profit in Automotive segment than FY11Q3 due to lower sales units as consumer’s opted for deliveries in January 2012 instead of December 2011 and higher exchange rates which had an adverse effect on operating margins

- Lower profit in Financial Services segment than FY10Q4 due to the one-off recognition from the sale of two Asset Backed Medium Term Notes (MTN) issuance undertaken in 2010 amounting to RM466 million, compared to only 1 issue in 2011 of RM212 million

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1849169*0.11/652817 = 0.3116, estimate PE on current price 4.51 = 14.09(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0836*4*0.9 = 0.301, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.42/13.02 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.3664, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.54/11.24 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.35, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.8/11.94 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0983*4 = 0.3932, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.03/1 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0991*4 = 0.3964, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.92/9.51 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0639*4 = 0.2556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.91/10.92 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0527*4 = 0.2108, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.65/10.44 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0528*4 = 0.2112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.31/8.19 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0626*4 = 0.2504, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.35/5.39 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0425*4 = 0.17, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.12/6.12 (DPS 0.1)

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