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Wednesday, April 4, 2012

KLCI Stock - PERISAI / 0047 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)724,009,090 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.85/0.0693 = 12.27 (Moderate)
Target Price0.0693*15.0 = 1.04 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.0693)
DecisionBUY if stock price above 0.8 and buying volume is more than selling volume or wait at lower MACD start move up
Comment
Revenue increased 36.4% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 38%, eps increased 312.9% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.9%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover financing expenses, very high gross and operating profit margin, slightly improved liquidity ratio but still at weak level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, debt ratio increased but still not yet near to historical high level, receivables and payables ratio increased to very high level now, benefit from acquired Intan Group, newly acquired Garuda Energy
First Support Price0.8
Second Support Price0.75
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
RHB Target Price1.43 (2011-03-31)
TA Target Price1.29 (2012-02-23)
HwangDBS Target Price1.2 (2012-03-06)
CIMB Target Price1.5 (2012-03-08)
Jupiter Target Price0.95 (2012-03-23)
Maybank Target Price1.13 (2012-03-28)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity5.71%
Dividend Yield-
Gross Profit Margin67.56%
Operating Profit Margin55.48%
Net Profit Margin53.89%
Tax Rate13.64%
Asset Turnover0.1061
Net Asset Value Per Share0.45
Net Tangible Asset per share0.28
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.27
Cash Per Share0.05
Liquidity Current Ratio0.5761
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.5761
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1766
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.2556
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5201
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-119.0%
Days to sell the inventory-
Days to collect the receivables410
Days to pay the payables1790

Technical Analysis
SMA 200.883 (Downtrend 16 days)
SMA 500.883 (Uptrend)
SMA 1000.788 (Uptrend)
SMA 2000.736 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.013987 ( 0.000232 )
Signal (9)-0.008051 ( 0.001484 )
MACD Histogram0.005936 (Bearish trend 29 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to acquisition of the issued and paid up share capital of the Intan Group, lower vessel expenses incurred, decrease in financing cost due to part settlement of the existing Group borrowings

- Higher pbt than FY11Q3 due to impairment of two (2) cold-stacked vessels ie a work boat vessel and a DP1 work boat vessel amounting to RM18.74million in quarter 3

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 372924*0.14/753483 = 0.0693, estimate PE on current price 0.85 = 12.27
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0115*4*1.05 = 0.0483, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.53/12.84
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0432*0.98 = 0.0423, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.02/10.76
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0108*4 = 0.0432, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.44/13.66
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.008*4*0.9 = 0.0288 (10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.61/17.19
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0087*4*0.9 = 0.0313 (10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.49/15.5
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0093*4*0.9 = 0.0335 (10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.76/14.63
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0589*0.85 = 0.0501, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.77/8.38
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0125*4 = 0.05, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12/9.4

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