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Thursday, April 19, 2012

KLCI Stock - YTL / 4677 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)17,890,802,786 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.72-0.04)/0.1247 = 13.47 (Moderate)
Target Price1.75+0.04 = 1.79 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1247, DPS 0.04)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price below Bolinger lower band or wait another round of lower MACD move
Revenue increased 17.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 18.3%, eps decreased 5.7% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 45.3%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence generated more cash from financing to cover all other expenses, gross profit margin decreasing, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at very high level now, lower debt ratio, all accounting repayment period is good, benefit from YTL Cement acquisition
First Support Price1.39
Second Support Price1.3

Research House
Affin Target Price1.65 (2011-12-21)
Jupiter Target Price2 (2012-03-16)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.50%
Dividend Yield-
Gross Profit Margin19.82%
Operating Profit Margin15.07%
Net Profit Margin11.46%
Tax Rate27.21%
Asset Turnover0.3951
Net Asset Value Per Share1.22
Net Tangible Asset per share0.72
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.97
Cash Per Share1.5
Liquidity Current Ratio1.2997
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.1532
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.8875
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio3.2375
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7198
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale23.4%
Days to sell the inventory54
Days to collect the receivables73
Days to pay the payables84

Technical Analysis
SMA 201.751 (Downtrend 2 days)
SMA 501.667 (Uptrend)
SMA 1001.57 (Uptrend)
SMA 2001.494 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.012517 ( 0.002854 )
Signal (9)0.023291 ( 0.002693 )
MACD Histogram0.010774 (Bearish trend 19 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt in Construction segment were principally due to higher percentage of work done recognised from both local and Singapore projects

- Decrease in revenue mainly due to absence of revenue contributed by Extiva Communications Sdn Bhd in previous year corresponding period. Despite revenue reduced, this segment - IT recorded a growth of 17% arising from higher fixed deposit income and gain in liquidation of a subsidiary, namely Wimax Capital Management Ltd

- The better performance in the cement manufacturing & trading segment is substantially attributed to higher demand of cement in construction industry and contribution from offshore subsidiaries

- The increase in revenue and pbt were substantially contributed by the Capers under the Sentul Raya project

- Higher pbt in Property & Investment segment mainly attributable to the one-off operating cost incurred by a foreign subsidiary in the previous year corresponding quarter

- Hotel segment continued to grow with increased revenue from oversea business

- Increase in revenue and pbt mainly due to overall higher volume of business, favourable fair value adjustments on fuel and saving in finance cost. However, pbt was lower for the current year to date due to higher losses recorded in the segment of mobile broadband network

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = (13853126+2355502)*0.08/10401630 = 0.1247, estimate PE on current price 1.72 = 13.47(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0279*4 = 0.1116, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.44/11.83 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1172*1.05 = 0.1231, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.27/10.15 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.2632*2 = 0.5264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.29/11.11 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1304*4*1.05 = 0.5477(average eps 0.1304; 5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.41/12.69 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1162*1.15*4 = 0.5345, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.9/13.55 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1178*4 = 0.4712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.93/14.85 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1178*4 = 0.4712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.16/14.44 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1162*4 = 0.4648, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.13/15.01 (DPS 0.075)

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