KLCI Stock - AHEALTH / 7090 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	268,030,262 (Small)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.86-0.155)/0.2717 = 9.96 (High)
Target Price	2.58+0.155 = 2.74 (PE 9.5, EPS 0.2717, DPS 0.155)
Decision	Not interested unless coming financial quarter report got significant good result
Comment	Revenue increased 0.5% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.2%, eps increased 73.8% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.4%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but investing expenses used 0.8% of Group cash to cover, gross margin still very high, stronger liquidity ratio from moderate to high level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, lower debt ratio and still far from historical high, all repayment period is good
First Support Price	2.8
Second Support Price	2.7
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	13.23%
Dividend Yield	5.42%
Gross Profit Margin	26.06%
Operating Profit Margin	10.15%
Net Profit Margin	10.11%
Tax Rate	14.17%
Asset Turnover	1.2713
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.12
Net Tangible Asset per share	2.11
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.34
Cash Per Share	0.24
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.0217
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.378
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.3406
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.3806
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2629
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	37.0%
Days to sell the inventory	58
Days to collect the receivables	86
Days to pay the payables	86

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	2.888 (Downtrend 8 days)
SMA 50	2.856 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	2.795 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	2.82 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.00176 ( 0.000729 )
Signal (9)	0.004854 ( 0.001653 )
MACD Histogram	0.006614 (Bearish trend 12 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt than FY10Q4 due to recognition of both non-recurring and operational income of RM15.9 million from Xiamen Maidiken Science and Technology Co (‘MDK’) in 2010. If performance were to be evaluated without contributions from MDK, profit before tax in 2011 grew 19% over 2010

- Higher pbt than FY11Q3 attributed to the subsequent revision to the estimated fair value less costs to sell of the Assets (or disposal group) as held for sale

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 212212*0.12/93717 = 0.2717, estimate PE on current price 2.86 = 9.96(DPS 0.155)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.07*4*1.05 = 0.294, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.3/8.52 (DPS 0.145)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.38, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.33/6.14 (DPS 0.145)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.095*4 = 0.38, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.21/7.05 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.08*4*1.05 = 0.336(exclude non-recurring income RM10.1 million), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.54/7.44 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0771*4*1.05 = 0.3238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.18/7.38 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1334*2*1.1 = 0.2935 (0.1334 is recent 2Q cum_eps, 10% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.7/7.85 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.32 (add 5% adjustment from 0.3048 due to profit boosted), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.48/8.41 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3048 (10% grow from 0.2771(after deducted 3.4 mil)), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/6.18 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2385, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.82/7.26 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2365, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.83/6.44 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.64/5.47 (DPS 0.095)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.11/4.59 (DPS 0.095)

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