KLCI Stock - MISC / 3816 - 2011 Quarter 7

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	23,702,741,376 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(5.31-0.1)/0.2845 = 18.31 (High)
Target Price	5.12+0.1 = 5.22 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.2845, DPS 0.1)
Decision	Not interested unless MACD start moving up while stock price above 5.2 or wait MACD start moving up from another lower position
Comment	Revenue increased 10% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.5%, eps largely decreased 1336.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 226.2%, cash generated from operating not enough to fully cover financing expenses but got enough cash generated from financing to cover other expenses, lower gross and operating profit margin, weaker liquidity ratio from low to weak level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, higher debt ratio at historical high, very poor in payables repayment, exit Liner business which going to offset the division loss in the future, energy shipping division profit largely decreasing
First Support Price	5.2
Second Support Price	4.8
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

AMMB Target Price	7.3 (2011-03-25)
RHB Target Price	8.47 (2011-07-11)
CIMB Target Price	5.75 (2011-08-19)
ECM Target Price	5.73 (2012-02-23)
HLG Target Price	5.57 (2012-02-23)
HwangDBS Target Price	6.6 (2012-02-23)
Maybank Target Price	5.7 (2012-02-23)
MIDF Target Price	5.4 (2012-02-23)
Kenanga Target Price	5.47 (2012-03-28)
OSK Target Price	7.45 (2012-04-04)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	-6.64%
Dividend Yield	1.88%
Gross Profit Margin	8.39%
Operating Profit Margin	2.88%
Net Profit Margin	-57.38%
Tax Rate	-
Asset Turnover	0.2759
Net Asset Value Per Share	4.71
Net Tangible Asset per share	4.51
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.29
Cash Per Share	0.93
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.6959
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.6547
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.3931
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.9106
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4618
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-28.1%
Days to sell the inventory	60
Days to collect the receivables	72
Days to pay the payables	643

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	5.308 (Uptrend 3 days)
SMA 50	5.59 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	5.773 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	6.334 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.053876 ( 0.000708 )
Signal (9)	-0.074082 ( 0.005051 )
MACD Histogram	0.020206 (Bullish trend 14 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 7 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt from Energy Shipping segment due to weak global economy coupled with vessel supply overhang, freight rates headed further south

- Higher revenue than FY11Q6 due to increase in domestic E&P activities, the Group's offshore and heavy engineering businesses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q7 result announced = 317473*4/4464000 = 0.2845(based on profit from all segment except Liner), estimate PE on current price 5.31 = 18.31(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q6 result announced = 363732/4464000*4 = 0.3259(exclude USD400 million costs), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.96/16.08 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = 0.3(roe ~6% per year due to an improvement from preceding quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.5/15.5 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 39.2/34.35 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0691*4 = 0.2764(profit margin 10% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.57/25.69 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.04(exclude 257 million from other income)*4*1.05 = 0.168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 52.08/48.63 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0509*4 = 0.2036, estimate highest/lowest PE = 42.98/37.77 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0457*4 = 0.1828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 48.03/40.65 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0457*4 = 0.1828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 47.37/40.59 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0544*4 = 0.2176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 42/37.91 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.058*4 = 0.232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 37.07/33.62 (DPS 0.35)

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