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Wednesday, June 6, 2012

KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2012 Quarter 3

PADINI HOLDINGS BERHAD



Company Description
PADINI HOLDINGS BERHAD is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The Company operates through its subsidiaries, which are engaged in the dealership of ladies’ shoes and accessories, garments and ancillary products, children’s garments, maternity wear and accessories. It operates in two principal geographical areas: Malaysia and Hong Kong. Its major subsidiaries include Vincci Ladies’ Specialties Centre Sdn. Bhd., Padini Corporation Sdn. Bhd., Seed Corporation Sdn. Bhd., Yee Fong Hung (Malaysia) Sendirian Berhad, Mikihouse Children’s Wear Sdn. Bhd., Vincci Holdings Sdn. Bhd., Padini Dot Com Sdn. Bhd., The New World Garment Manufacturers Sdn. Bhd. and Padini International Limited.

Company Info 
Listing Date1998-03-05
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,125,025,245 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10
BoardMain
SectorConsumer Products
Major IndustryGarments
Sub IndustryShoes & Accessories
Websitehttp://www.padini.com/

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(1.71-0.08)/0.1738 = 9.38 (Moderate)
Target Price1.91+0.08 = 1.99 (PE 11.0, EPS 0.1738, DPS 0.08)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain and uptrend above SMA20
Comment
Revenue decreased 13.1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19%, eps decreased 15% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.5%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses and got borrowings to cover investing expenses, gross margin still very high, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio from moderate to below moderate level now, 18.8% lower debt ratio, inventory still high which can target higher revenue
First Support Price1.65
Second Support Price1.55
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
BIMB Target Price1.22 (2011-01-24)
Inter Pacific Target Price1.21 (2011-05-31)
Maybank Target Price1.7 (2012-03-13)
Jupiter Target Price1.57 (2012-04-04)
Alliance Target Price1.85 (2012-04-05)
AMMB Target Price2.15 (2012-05-31)
HwangDBS Target Price2.1 (2012-05-31)
JF Apex Target Price2 (2012-05-31)
OSK Target Price2.22 (2012-05-31)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity35.93%
Dividend Yield4.68%
Gross Profit Margin51.75%
Operating Profit Margin18.51%
Net Profit Margin18.14%
Tax Rate23.93%
Asset Turnover1.39
Net Asset Value Per Share0.51
Net Tangible Asset per share0.5
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.6
Cash Per Share0.22
Liquidity Current Ratio2.8775
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.3357
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.0627
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.4729
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3211
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale37.7%
Days to sell the inventory227
Days to collect the receivables20
Days to pay the payables84

Technical Analysis 
SMA 201.686 (Downtrend 3 days)
SMA 501.594 (Uptrend)
SMA 1001.456 (Uptrend)
SMA 2001.208 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.032547 ( 0.002323 )
Signal (9)0.038967 ( 0.001605 )
MACD Histogram0.006420 (Bearish trend 3 days)
Bolinger Upper Band1.825
Bolinger Lower Band1.547

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q3 due mainly to a net increase of about 98000 square feet in gross floor area under retail but lower pbt due to better than usual sell-through rates for merchandise offered for sales in previous year

- Lower revenue and pbt due to previous quarter got Chinese New Year shopping and longer period of subdued retail activity before promotional retail activities resumed in mid-March 2012

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 336396*0.34/657910 = 0.1738, estimate PE on current price 1.71 = 9.38(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 325811*0.34/657910 = 0.1684, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.51/7.42 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1276*1.1 = 0.1404, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.69/7.19 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1144*1.1 = 0.1258, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.51/6.2 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0591*2)*1.05 = 0.1241, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.11/6.81 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4479*0.95/5 = 0.0851, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.39/10.83 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.64/7.44 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

PADINI latest news (English)

PADINI latest news (Chinese)



Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdategros_moper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-05-3020123N/AN/A0.028.59%28.22%1760065565743192810753624287797840.03690.1213495469159073-33639651893180582793613881233835589914471165791065791011842382012-03-3151.75%18.51%18.14%23.93%1.39-0.510.53.60.222.87751.33571.06270.47290.321137.7%2272084
2012-02-28201221.851.330.0210.10%19.63%202453380568388687560828551554970.04340.0844539069213258-32581147223126591180913923334564227551619886579106579108750202011-12-3148.97%19.53%19.20%26.54%1.2256-0.50.482.770.252.29691.1080.84580.65450.395637.7%26227151
2011-11-29201211.41.050.029.53%9.53%178115178115367403674026946269460.04100.0410481213170775-3104381815075592223613924910591116451276046579106579106908052011-09-3049.38%20.89%20.63%26.66%1.2469-0.470.462.280.192.58231.14220.86170.55010.354939.2%27325149
2011-08-26201141.110.82-7.71%32.13%1321465585612536310463218076752950.02750.1144444339161662-282677291272041226911342272708643951386226579106579105855392011-06-3050.79%19.52%19.19%28.73%1.25717.77660.430.422.120.212.53541.29611.00740.57190.363837.9%24026125
2011-05-30201131.170.8850.0210.41%24.42%147960426415333547926924386572190.03710.0870429576152200-277376368994126278831342383277348901391286579106579107105422011-03-3160.01%22.76%22.54%26.89%1.2589-0.420.412.630.232.53761.37561.12540.54870.354337.7%22522132
2011-02-25201121.21.0-6.18%14.01%141814278455202644591514484328330.02200.0499434282167856-2664263946534291072113445636036253151597716579106579107039632010-12-3149.36%14.64%14.29%28.52%1.2256-0.40.392.740.262.13631.3521.07280.630.386533.8%17230150
2010-11-29201115.561.040.027.83%7.83%136641136641256512565118349183490.13940.1394379439127437-2520022338136823255134505237494941349991315821315826552782010-09-3052.93%18.96%18.77%28.47%1.3674-1.921.862.681.12.41031.57921.23550.50570.335931.9%14028117
2010-08-26201045.524.20.0755.79%29.77%114389522949186538611611807607400.08970.4616356581122250-23433111018126351135846477983830702461350251315821315825368542010-06-3051.90%16.80%16.31%36.70%1.46668.83861.781.732.361.182.37381.68631.39140.52170.342829.3%1072377
2010-05-27201034.163.6-8.46%23.98%139433408560238206746317266489330.13120.3719343141101005-24213610403114870114576488189161777041425851315821315824736952010-03-3148.37%16.12%17.08%27.51%1.4789-1.841.841.961.232.90412.18451.79830.41710.294433.9%912566
2010-02-25201024.243.450.0755.65%15.52%128395269127166134364411521316680.08760.2407362863137396-22546780532801134366532872521759571412851315821315825579072009-12-3151.13%15.12%12.94%30.65%1.344-1.711.712.481.222.25571.58661.28090.60940.378632.3%1222992
2009-11-25201014.33.02-9.87%9.87%140732140732270312703120147201470.15310.153132114097126-22401445223394844526548541275368231023081315821315824039562009-09-3048.60%20.19%19.21%25.47%1.522-1.71.71.810.922.55681.71941.28870.43360.302430.0%1143066
2009-08-27200943.142.690.0753.32%29.23%989184770596572676105633495330.04280.376429072086677-2040436295319442290224004351143221656211315821315823552712009-06-3046.89%7.74%6.64%14.29%1.6417.17241.551.551.740.642.51591.41261.01550.42480.298126.5%1372554
2009-05-28200932.752.39-6.50%25.90%119638378141154536103811022439000.08380.333629317586438-20673744317166806190425692763721447640161315821315823355342009-03-3147.21%11.00%12.92%28.67%1.5779-1.571.571.620.632.53381.37080.98770.41810.294827.8%1502556
2009-02-26200922.682.230.068.71%19.40%129479258503208814558514768328780.11220.2499319534124415-1951195229216392196222753590036096583711315821315823052702008-12-3149.96%17.96%16.13%29.28%1.3958-1.481.481.570.591.91810.94040.63140.63760.389425.1%19531104
2008-11-26200912.551.97-10.69%10.69%129024129024247042470418110181100.13760.1376295589107462-1881272441665411864221841787516011381951315821315822579002008-09-3050.63%20.01%19.15%26.69%1.418-1.431.431.370.432.08510.94090.54190.57120.363627.0%20935107
2008-08-28200842.571.70.081.18%29.24%844713833063309576591684417150.01280.317026431494836-1694785166347101955551653295449989416641315821315823315862008-06-3045.99%4.91%3.92%49.11%1.45027.94891.291.291.950.322.07230.8050.45470.55960.358825.6%2202997
2008-05-29200833.162.52-9.68%28.06%103027298835189785435013814400310.10500.304424979072339-177451220922545114985157633591861497151315821314954157992008-03-3151.64%17.02%18.42%27.15%1.5016-1.351.352.340.382.60071.04450.72070.40770.289629.4%2092194
2008-02-27200823.443.120.110.28%18.38%102619195808199473537214673262170.11150.1994263783946873281690962188718678903451746320912243639891315821314954579052007-12-3152.15%20.55%19.44%26.37%1.3529-1.281.282.720.492.15181.050.70310.5610.35929.4%20232134
2007-11-29200813.582.82-8.09%8.09%9318993189154251542511544115440.08780.0878227518728183371547008124361128485205045137361594111314081314083666282007-09-3048.70%17.18%16.55%25.09%1.4875-1.171.172.380.452.49931.32610.86330.47170.320130.5%17034114
2007-08-30200742.92.740.05N/AN/A762603171739254440076064314030.09240.478819573453067326142667434102032415074440862308680125209865644655901575452007-06-3046.16%10.72%12.13%34.36%1.25295.01282.172.171.110.792.91721.60271.06940.37280.271138.1%18639114
2007-05-3020073N/AN/A0.1N/AN/A84814240913135103475310013253400.15290.38681899974883531514116226722134577005440951326562605035565505655053209742007-03-3149.56%16.41%15.93%25.81%0.8894-2.152.152.280.773.18071.75651.13980.34670.25757.0%27259132
2007-02-2720072N/AN/A0.05N/AN/A84166156099157172124311604153260.17810.23521935276065532413287222607993821604424912669105095475865164651643062702006-12-3150.48%19.37%18.67%26.09%N/A-2.032.032.320.842.63391.44650.98390.45760.3134N/A-N/AN/A

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtAvailable-for-sale investment (A-0)Club membership (A-0)Deferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Financial assets at fair value through profit and loss (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other receivables (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Dividend payable (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)Provision for liabilities (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20123560124185282582252-84220144711-4442356213354224591487913881929914367-3933811170574667765-
20122560124172184842331-85011161988-563351228175203172944413921993614024-41668215965211109431-
20121560124174164062333-86596127604-47934721384520270209081724205618886-17460120445286104814-
20114560124154565232212-83621138622-40234217095520582188511564221515901131582494813516449075934-
20113560124288966481737-80735139128-62010272154261184171418511211832410606-235119602804280994-
20112560124197967661771-84662159771-51910171124245185152519963588068741-3703418422440589813-
20111560124208569821778-85093134999-4179974975252225017652110289997418-2373611887483269463-
20104560124195969911870-80753135025-2701991476554164421611977410125686519738261289965368244973-
20103684-2500-157781275521142585-1196836493223959108871941057612108-278057221344439657-
20102684-2928-165285673693141285--19449839582188116477194117211568298693168513961515649128-
20101684-2290-167787574506102308--19215789722258018033194263213125-326577098260438816-
20094684-2047-17008947588765621--18945918782175711307194321087407895286367880163728485-
20093836-476-18429317652864016-2188469756119190129472125259104-37607756987028742-
20092836-1048-17668918072258371-411874011941620154175492022601059878953608917486352346544-
20091836-618-1772887742643819511472191826011919519979202172032707970-3329415182164846078-
20084697-473-168184570748217961716178198681161131788012319193195479697372500212970106738050-
20083697-8591221713-6699518574-278311411073531369383654133159351-10758782859340453-
20082697-1236-1722-6428633237-2153075210027915131162283836379255-1327616388222649867328
20081697-988-1731-5211328923-35304888073613800180073739666449-70406685128247359337
20074697-859-1740-5031721866-33302326404112734132153943104753-3847740682831884326
20073697-1460---4732720735-1429620629161297414254846504460239145834794216125788315
20072697-1362---4488525517-1429241660811247513255849953997477845875413292033957324

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseCost of salesFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestSelling and distribution costsDiscontinued operationEffects of FRS
20123176006764184924649105613237-46324--
2012220245310317103319668167511780-49493--
2012117811597949016347218728114-44498--
2011413214672876502742812697555-35042--
2011314796089685917432118826288-50705--
20112141814578071817499211318719-32628--
2011113664173026431125410857818-39692--
201041143896846550232964466277-34319-267
201031394336554719882289627742-38183-1566
2010212839550926274529010676885-40419-2510
2010114073268847233231513076516-34778-1067
20094989189395253624525697052-34244-838
2009311963844316316239711557592-3688222695
2009212947961136478848419616770-36627-1890
2009112902465946369839910277128-313483723
20084844711625456192621492116120245844581
2008310302751534982222814566261113086511670
20082102619526149104154878685913264482983
2008193189387047808125530630811235892462
200747626031804106018711146898102123811264
2007384814348742779361655754510222290370
2007284166410041680681150559613217376512

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
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