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Saturday, June 16, 2012

KLCI Stock - RSAWIT / 5113 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,347,760,092 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(1.03-0.015)/0.0323 = 31.42 (High)
Target Price0.45+0.015 = 0.47 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.0323, DPS 0.015)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit surge or from technical analysis stock price very strong stay above SMA20
Revenue increased 4.7% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 67.9%, eps decreased 26.8% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 38.2%, cash generated from operating not enough for financing expenses but got enough cash generated from financing activities to cover all expenses, gross margin decreasing, weaker liquidity ratio at weak level now, lower gearing ratio at medium level now, lower debt ratio and is getting far from historical high, payables repayment period improving, affecting by decreasing of CPO price, benefit from acquired additional 12% land area
First Support Price1.0
Second Support Price0.915

Research House
Jupiter Target Price1.03 (2012-05-16)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity64.83%
Dividend Yield1.46%
Gross Profit Margin19.23%
Operating Profit Margin13.61%
Net Profit Margin8.74%
Tax Rate22.63%
Asset Turnover0.2303
Net Asset Value Per Share0.44
Net Tangible Asset per share0.4
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.6
Cash Per Share0.06
Liquidity Current Ratio0.8487
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.7226
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.5741
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6551
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3751
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-9.1%
Days to sell the inventory41
Days to collect the receivables30
Days to pay the payables150

Technical Analysis 
SMA 201.029 (Uptrend 3 days)
SMA 501.058 (Same)
SMA 1001.066 (Uptrend)
SMA 2000.85 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.009135 ( 0.001163 )
Signal (9)-0.009797 ( 0.000166 )
MACD Histogram0.000662 (Bullish trend 1 day)
Bolinger Upper Band1.072
Bolinger Lower Band0.986

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt mainly due to the decrease in average selling price of crude palm oil (“CPO”) and palm kernel (“PK”), which was partially offset by the increase in sales volume for CPO and PK and increased manuring costs of RM7.48 million and higher depreciation/ amortisation of RM2.44 million and increased harvesting and transportation costs of RM0.82 million, due to higher FFB production

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 65975/2041722 = 0.0323, estimate PE on current price 1.03 = 31.42(DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 65975*1.1/2041722 = 0.0355, estimate highest/lowest PE = 32.25/27.46 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 17855/1308505*4*1.1 = 0.06, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.08/16.25 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.113/4*2*1.1 = 0.0622, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.4/7.15 (DPS 0.02)

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