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Sunday, June 3, 2012

KLCI Stock - NAIM / 5073 - 2012 Quarter 1


Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)425,000,000 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(1.7-0.06)/0.2094 = 7.83 (Moderate)
Target Price2.30+0.06 = 2.36 (PE 11.0, EPS 0.2094, DPS 0.06)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain and uptrend above 1.65 or wait at lower price
Comment
Revenue increased 3.6% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 22.1%, eps increased 204.5% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 31.6%, cash generated from investing enough to cover all expenses, gross margin surged, slightly weaker liquidity ratio but still at strong level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, higher debt ratio and almost historical high, inventory and receivables repayment period getting longer and this can cause increase more borrowing, no significant increase in property development cost can indicate no new property development project, higher inventory can indicate more properties held to sale or more construction material allocate, property development segment growth but construction segment getting poor to secure new project
First Support Price1.65
Second Support Price1.5
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
MIDF Target Price3 (2012-03-01)
AMMB Target Price2.88 (2012-05-28)
Kenanga Target Price2.94 (2012-05-28)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity6.80%
Dividend Yield3.53%
Gross Profit Margin23.84%
Operating Profit Margin12.62%
Net Profit Margin24.41%
Tax Rate26.65%
Asset Turnover0.2903
Net Asset Value Per Share3.18
Net Tangible Asset per share3.14
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.55
Cash Per Share0.97
Liquidity Current Ratio5.2122
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.6339
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.5063
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.7293
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4164
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale167.7%
Days to sell the inventory275
Days to collect the receivables290
Days to pay the payables167

Technical Analysis 
SMA 201.811 (Downtrend 19 days)
SMA 501.91 (Downtrend)
SMA 1001.948 (Uptrend)
SMA 2001.854 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.065001 ( 9.7e-005 )
Signal (9)-0.064012 ( 0.000247 )
MACD Histogram0.000989 (Bearish trend 15 days)
Bolinger Upper Band2.086
Bolinger Lower Band1.536

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt mainly due to the following:
* Improvement in margin for construction segment, especially from the substantially completed projects
* Improvement in performance of associates and joint ventures
* Decrease in administrative expense

- Higher revenue from Property segment mainly contributed by the higher units of properties sold from existing properties under construction

- Other segment recorded lower revenue and higher loss mainly attributable to the quarry and premix operations in Malaysia and Fiji which reported lower sales and were running below capacity owing to reduced construction activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 763498*0.065/236944 = 0.2094, estimate PE on current price 1.7 = 7.83(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 763498*0.06/236944 = 0.1933, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.69/8.33 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0433*4 = 0.1732, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.34/8.43 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0516+0.043)*2 = 0.1892(exclude RM10 million disposal gain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.15/7.93 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4023*0.85 = 0.342(0.4023 from recent fourth quarter eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.19/5.38 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0921*4*0.9 = 0.3316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.77/8.84 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2587*2*0.9 = 0.4657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.16/6.79 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1619*2*1.1 = 0.3562, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.47/8.84 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2988 (10% drop from 0.332, due to profit decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.28/8.57 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0793*4 = 0.3172, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.41/8.89 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0902*4 = 0.3608, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.87/6.59 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0955*4 = 0.382, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.04/6.73 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0668*4 = 0.2672, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.18/6.4 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1118*4 = 0.4472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.07/2.17 (DPS 0.13)

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