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Tuesday, June 26, 2012

KLCI Stock - AIRPORT / 5014 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)6,715,500,005 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(5.55-0.2247)/0.401 = 13.28 (Moderate)
Target Price6.02+0.2247 = 6.24 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.401, DPS 0.2247)
DecisionBUY if stock price below SMA20 and sell volume is not high or when MACD move back to bullish trend
Comment
Revenue decreased 21.5% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.5%, eps decreased 17.5% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.5%, cash generated from operating enough for financing expenses and also got enough cash generated from financing to cover all investing expenses, operating margin still maintaining high, stronger liquidity ratio from moderate to high level now, lower gearing ratio from high to above moderate level now, debt ratio decreased 11% from historical high, primary profit contribution segment - Airport services still growth and benefit from new rate
First Support Price5.5
Second Support Price5.3
Risk RatingLOW

Research House
HLG Target Price6.5 (2012-04-27)
HwangDBS Target Price6.05 (2012-04-27)
Maybank Target Price7.1 (2012-04-27)
MIDF Target Price6.72 (2012-04-27)
CIMB Target Price6.05 (2012-06-01)
OSK Target Price7.53 (2012-06-04)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity12.36%
Dividend Yield4.05%
Gross Profit Margin89.50%
Operating Profit Margin25.96%
Net Profit Margin23.36%
Tax Rate33.15%
Asset Turnover0.3521
Net Asset Value Per Share3.82
Net Tangible Asset per share-0.6
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share-9.58
Cash Per Share1.09
Liquidity Current Ratio2.86
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.7349
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.7966
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.8695
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4651
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale44.8%
Days to sell the inventory233
Days to collect the receivables82
Days to pay the payables1765

Technical Analysis
SMA 205.634 (Downtrend 3 days)
SMA 505.673 (Downtrend)
SMA 1005.635 (Same)
SMA 2005.637 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.012123 ( 0.006635 )
Signal (9)-0.005275 ( 0.001712 )
MACD Histogram0.006848 (Bearish trend 2 days)
Bolinger Upper Band5.78
Bolinger Lower Band5.488

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q1 mainly contributed by a positive growth of 18.1% or RM37.1 million from aeronautical revenue which was mostly derived from passenger service charges and landing charges driven by higher passenger and aircraft numbers and the implementation of new rates. However, the increase in revenue from passenger service charges was negated by lower MARCS PSC as the Group is no longer entitled to claim for MARCS PSC upon the implementation of the new rates which is equivalent to the benchmark rate as stipulated in the operating agreements signed on 12 February 2009. Further, the improvement in revenue was also derived from the Group’s retail business which improved by 15.8% or RM17.9 million riding on the passenger growth, particularly from LCCT

- Hotel revenue grew 34% or RM5.3 million due to higher revenue from food and beverage related services which increased by 61.0% or RM3.7 million contributed by the catering business for various events held at Sepang International Circuit. Revenue from room occupancy also contributed to the positive variance by 17.0% or RM1.6 million mainly resulting from higher average room rates despite lower occupancy by 2.3% from 71.5%

- The decrease in agriculture revenue was due to lower price attained for fresh fruit bunches (“FFB”) per tonne (RM148 or 18.7% lower) coupled with lower production volume for the period (a decrease of 3,164MT or 18.8%) (2012: 13,647MT / RM643, 2011:16,811MT / RM791). The FFB price was determined by the price of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) traded in the market. The decrease in production was in line with the industry outlook due to the occurrence of El Nino in recent years which have a direct effect on the current oil palm yield

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 4256630*0.105/1114505 = 0.401, estimate PE on current price 5.55 = 13.28(DPS 0.2247)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 3546869*0.12/1100000 = 0.3869, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15/13.78 (DPS 0.2247)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0745+0.0983)*2 = 0.3456, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.1/15.03 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0745*4 = 0.298, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.65/14.44 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0801*4*1.1 = 0.3524, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.57/17.26 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0764*4*1.1 = 0.3362(deduct 16 million other income for adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.64/17.31 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.06*4*1.1 = 0.264(associates increasing loss), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.49/21.41 (DPS 0.149)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3233*0.95 = 0.3071, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.12/16.55 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3429*0.9 = 0.3086 (10% drop from 0.3429), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.24/14.81 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.086*4 = 0.344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.97/12.89 (DPS 0.233)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0758*4 = 0.3032, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.72/11.36 (DPS 0.233)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.068*4 = 0.272, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/11.6 (DPS 0.1855)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0695*4 = 0.278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.07/10.27 (DPS 0.1855)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.37/7.63 (DPS 0.1855)

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