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Tuesday, June 12, 2012

KLCI Stock - SIME / 4197 - 2012 Quarter 3

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)58,472,083,075 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(9.73-0.32)/0.7082 = 13.29 (Moderate)
Target Price9.91+0.32 = 10.23 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.7082, DPS 0.32)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price can strong sustain above SMA20 and MACD rebound
Revenue decreased 3.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4%, eps decreased 20.5% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.8%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence incresed borrowings and spent 17.4% of Group cash to cover all other expenses, slightly better liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at above moderate level now, lower debt ratio but still near to historical high, all repayment period is good, higher inventory can indicate higher revenue in future, CPO price decreasing
First Support Price9.55
Second Support Price9.3

Research House
TA Target Price10.1 (2012-01-04)
RHB Target Price10.65 (2012-01-12)
MIDF Target Price11.8 (2012-03-01)
Alliance Target Price11.15 (2012-05-31)
ECM Target Price9.32 (2012-05-31)
AMMB Target Price12.3 (2012-06-07)
CIMB Target Price10.9 (2012-06-08)
HLG Target Price10.14 (2012-06-08)
HwangDBS Target Price11.9 (2012-06-08)
Kenanga Target Price10.8 (2012-06-08)
Maybank Target Price10.8 (2012-06-08)
OSK Target Price10.32 (2012-06-08)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity18.50%
Dividend Yield3.29%
Gross Profit Margin0.00%
Operating Profit Margin11.11%
Net Profit Margin10.78%
Tax Rate21.93%
Asset Turnover1.0047
Net Asset Value Per Share4.15
Net Tangible Asset per share4.01
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.4
Cash Per Share0.77
Liquidity Current Ratio1.6165
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9012
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.3079
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.8223
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4431
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale20.0%
Days to sell the inventory98
Days to collect the receivables66
Days to pay the payables75

Technical Analysis 
SMA 209.576 (Downtrend 22 days)
SMA 509.691 (Uptrend)
SMA 1009.586 (Uptrend)
SMA 2009.026 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.016757 ( 0.004728 )
Signal (9)-0.006581 ( 0.005834 )
MACD Histogram0.023338 (Bullish trend 10 days)
Bolinger Upper Band9.943
Bolinger Lower Band9.209

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and profit from Plantation segment due to midstream and downstream operations continued to record weak margins and high feedstock costs, compounded by low refinery utilisation

- Higher profit from Property segment than FY11Q3 mainly due to an increase in property development works completed in the various townships including USJ Heights, Bandar Bukit Raja and Ara Damansara but lower than FY12Q2 largely due to the net gain of RM12.8 million from the sale of an industrial land in Klang reported in the preceding quarter

- Higher profit from Industrial segment due to higher revenues in Australasia, Malaysia and Singapore were underpinned by the continued strong demand in the mining, logging and construction sectors except China/Hong Kong which continued to be affected by a slowdown in the construction sector. The results include a maiden contribution of RM6.1 million from the newly acquired Bucyrus business

- Lower profit from Motors segment than FY11Q3 attributable mainly to the weaker demand in Hong Kong/China and a forward contract loss of RM27.5 million against a gain of RM40.9 million a year ago

- Lower profit from Energy & Utilities segment due to competition from other port operators and higher overhead costs including the pre-operating expenses for Jining South Port and recognition of the deferred revenue of RM99.4 million in the power operations in the preceding quarter

- Lower profit from Healthcare segment due to start-up expenses for the new hospital in Ara Damansara which was officially launched on 20 March 2012. Contribution from healthcare education, affected by the continued uncertainty in the nursing education sector

- Other businesses recorded higher profit than FY11Q3 primarily as a result of the improved contribution from Tesco in the current period as against the impairment of an available for sale investment of RM24.3 million in the previous period

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 25795200*0.165/6009500 = 0.7082, estimate PE on current price 9.73 = 13.29(DPS 0.32)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 25639100*0.17/6009500 = 0.7253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.7/12.26 (DPS 0.32)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1787*4*1.1 = 0.7863, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.34/10.76 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.6098*1.1 = 0.6708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.27/9.99 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.146+0.1365)*2 = 0.565, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.27/14.94 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.146+0.1089)*2 = 0.5098(cpo price decreasing but offset by contracts awarded), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.22/17.01 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1271*4*1.1 = 0.5592(ROE 3.5% per quarter with condition CPO price continue maintain high), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.79/15.22 (DPS 0.1)
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.37, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.22/19.59 (DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.34, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.44/23.76(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.37, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.43/21.59 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.34, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.35/18.91 (DPS 0.27)

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