Sponsor by Innity

Sponsor by cwyeoh

Sponsor by Nuffnang

Thursday, June 28, 2012

KLCI Stock - TENAGA / 5347 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)36,653,905,780 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(6.7-0.2)/0.6442 = 10.09 (Moderate)
Target Price7.73+0.2 = 7.93 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.6442, DPS 0.2)
DecisionBUY if stock price continue strong sustain around SMA20
Revenue decreased 0.5% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 15%, eps largely increased 1351.9% from loss and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 264.5%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses and still got cash generated from financing to further enhance Group cash, operating margin start recovered, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, slightly lower debt ratio but still high, all collection/repayment is good, lower operating expenses due to coal price decreasing and reduced in use of alternative fuels, affecting by strengthening of USD and JYP against RM
First Support Price6.5
Second Support Price6.0

Research House
Jupiter Target Price6.84 (2012-03-13)
RHB Target Price7.6 (2012-04-12)
Maybank Target Price7.4 (2012-04-13)
MIDF Target Price7.5 (2012-04-13)
OSK Target Price7.68 (2012-04-13)
ZJ Target Price7.2 (2012-04-23)
Alliance Target Price7.56 (2012-05-25)
CIMB Target Price7.98 (2012-06-11)
HLG Target Price7.16 (2012-06-11)
HwangDBS Target Price7 (2012-06-19)
TA Target Price7.7 (2012-06-19)
Kenanga Target Price7.5 (2012-06-26)
AMMB Target Price7.35 (2012-06-27)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity4.99%
Dividend Yield2.99%
Gross Profit Margin0.00%
Operating Profit Margin44.17%
Net Profit Margin41.55%
Tax Rate21.60%
Asset Turnover0.4015
Net Asset Value Per Share6.41
Net Tangible Asset per share6.41
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.02
Cash Per Share1.66
Liquidity Current Ratio2.667
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.3167
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.1175
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.4299
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5873
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale39.5%
Days to sell the inventory33
Days to collect the receivables103
Days to pay the payables71

Technical Analysis
SMA 206.528 (Uptrend 11 days)
SMA 506.469 (Uptrend)
SMA 1006.379 (Uptrend)
SMA 2005.954 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.06377 ( 0.004513 )
Signal (9)0.038942 ( 0.006207 )
MACD Histogram0.024828 (Bullish trend 8 days)
Bolinger Upper Band6.748
Bolinger Lower Band6.308

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q2 mainly due to an increase in sales of electricity in Peninsular Malaysia and the tariff increase of 7.12% on 1 June 2011 and electricity demand grew by 4.1% in Peninsular and 4.8% in SESB

- Higher pbt mainly due to the fuel cost compensation received from the Government and Petronas amounting to RM2,023 mil and appreciation of the Ringgit has resulted in a foreign exchange translation gain of RM209.3 mil (vs FY11Q2)

- Compared to FY12Q1, operating expenses were lower mainly due to lower generation costs from reduced utilisation of oil and distillate

- The strengthening of the Ringgit against the Japanese Yen and the USD resulted in a higher foreign exchange gain of RM628.4 mil

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 35162500*0.1/5457914 = 0.6442, estimate PE on current price 6.7 = 10.09(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 30044200*0.08/5456669 = 0.4405(ROE 8%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/13.2 (DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q4 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2 and higher tariff, 4Q eps = 0.4424*1.2 = 0.5309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.97/9.97 (DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q3 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2, 4Q eps = 0.1229*4*0.9 = 0.4424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.18/10.61 (DPS 0.195)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1415+0.163)*2*1.05 = 0.6395, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.01 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7355*0.8 = 0.5884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/9.74 (DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.21/21.88 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)

Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/

MYR/JPY chart

TENAGA latest news (English)

TENAGA latest news (Chinese)

No comments:

Post a Comment