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Sunday, June 24, 2012

KLCI Stock - DIGI / 6947 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,257,725,000 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(4.19-0.25)/0.1452 = 27.13 (Moderate)
Target Price4.07+0.25 = 4.32 (PE 28.0, EPS 0.1452, DPS 0.25)
DecisionBUY for dividend keep unless stock price strongly below Bolinger lower band
Comment
Revenue increased 1.6% and was continuous increasing since FY09Q2 and also is highest all the time(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.7%), eps decreased 18.7% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.3%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses and got more than enough loan to cover investing expenses, operating margin lower than FY11Q1 but still very high, better liquidity ratio but still as usual at weak level now, higher gearing rato at very high level now, higher debt ratio at historical high, payables repayment period as usual around 6 month, mobile internet continuing growth
First Support Price4.0
Second Support Price3.85
Risk RatingLOW

Research House
RHB Target Price4.4 (2012-01-20)
MIDF Target Price4.35 (2012-03-15)
Kenanga Target Price4.15 (2012-03-28)
CIMB Target Price3.75 (2012-04-26)
HwangDBS Target Price3.9 (2012-04-26)
Maybank Target Price3.6 (2012-04-27)
HLG Target Price3.72 (2012-05-22)
Jupiter Target Price4.2 (2012-05-29)
Alliance Target Price4.08 (2012-06-13)
OSK Target Price4.07 (2012-06-18)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity91.27%
Dividend Yield5.97%
Gross Profit Margin0.00%
Operating Profit Margin25.92%
Net Profit Margin25.86%
Tax Rate20.99%
Asset Turnover1.2046
Net Asset Value Per Share0.16
Net Tangible Asset per share0.07
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share56.57
Cash Per Share0.2
Liquidity Current Ratio0.7538
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.7294
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.5612
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio3.13
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7579
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-10.9%
Days to sell the inventory5
Days to collect the receivables27
Days to pay the payables191

Technical Analysis 
SMA 204.044 (Uptrend 12 days)
SMA 503.975 (Uptrend)
SMA 1003.951 (Uptrend)
SMA 2002.68 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.05425 ( 0.004769 )
Signal (9)0.037665 ( 0.004146 )
MACD Histogram0.016585 (Bullish trend 18 days)
Bolinger Upper Band4.225
Bolinger Lower Band3.863

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to higher contributions from mobile internet revenue and higher handset sales offset by voice revenue amidst higher competitive pressure particularly in the prepaid segment

- Lower pat than FY11Q4 mainly due to inclusion of 2009 to 2011’s tax incentives related to mobile broadband network facilities which resulted in significantly lower effective tax rate

- In the prepaid segment, DiGi’s prepaid customer base was at par with the previous quarter. This was mainly driven by seasonally lower sales and high churn this quarter. ARPU for the quarter was marginally lower at RM41 (Q411: RM42) and this was mainly due to price competition in the IDD sub-segment

- In the postpaid segment, DiGi added 31k new customers (Q411: 39k). The steady growth in postpaid customers continued to be supported by attractive smart-phone/tablet bundles. Postpaid ARPU was slightly lower at RM85 (Q411: RM86) due to festive business closures

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1226691*0.92/7775000 = 0.1452, estimate PE on current price 4.19 = 27.13(DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1411431*0.88/7775000 = 0.1598, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.03/23.4 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.42*4*1.05 = 1.764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.23/18.66 (DPS 1.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4262*4*1.05 = 1.79, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.8/15.02 (DPS 1.72)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4262*4 = 1.7048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.6/15.31 (DPS 1.72)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 1.5151*1.1 = 1.6666, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.42/14.85 (DPS 1.63)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 1.4051*1.1 = 1.5456, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/12.46 (DPS 1.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.3254*1.1 = 1.4579(10% grow from 1.3254), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.85/13.04 (DPS 1.99)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.3254(3% grow from 1.2868), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.27/15.01 (DPS 2.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.317*4 = 1.268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.21/15.82 (DPS 1.78)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.3139*4 = 1.2556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.27/15.47 (DPS 1.77)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.3016*4 = 1.2064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.12/16.21 (DPS 1.75)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.3543*4 = 1.4172, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.51/14.1 (DPS 1.62)

DIGI latest news (English)

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