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Thursday, June 14, 2012

KLCI Stock - ANNJOO / 6556 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)872,922,657 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.67-0.055)/0.1268 = 12.74 (Moderate)
Target Price1.78+0.055 = 1.83 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1268, DPS 0.055)
DecisionBUY if stock price can strong sustain above SMA20 or wait got strong rebound at lower price
Comment
Revenue increased 22.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.9%, eps decreased 82.6 and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 94.4%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover financing expenses and still got borrowings to cover investing expenses, weakening liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, higher debt ratio at historical high, all accounting collection/repayment period is good, inventory still high can indicate steel demand still good
First Support Price1.6
Second Support Price1.5
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HLG Target Price1.34 (2012-02-29)
MIDF Target Price1.78 (2012-02-29)
Maybank Target Price2.2 (2012-05-09)
CIMB Target Price2.47 (2012-06-01)
Kenanga Target Price1.62 (2012-06-01)
OSK Target Price1.6 (2012-06-01)
AMMB Target Price2.43 (2012-06-04)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity3.07%
Dividend Yield3.29%
Gross Profit Margin0.00%
Operating Profit Margin0.52%
Net Profit Margin-0.17%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.8063
Net Asset Value Per Share1.4
Net Tangible Asset per share1.39
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.2
Cash Per Share0.12
Liquidity Current Ratio1.3089
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.3295
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.0756
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.6532
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6222
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale16.9%
Days to sell the inventory199
Days to collect the receivables49
Days to pay the payables30

Technical Analysis
SMA 201.685 (Downtrend 38 days)
SMA 501.843 (Downtrend)
SMA 1001.906 (Downtrend)
SMA 2001.939 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.043985 ( 0.002248 )
Signal (9)-0.054907 ( 0.002731 )
MACD Histogram0.010922 (Bullish trend 6 days)
Bolinger Upper Band1.889
Bolinger Lower Band1.481

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to higher sales of tonnage contributed from both Manufacturing and Trading Divisions and loss mainly attributable to continued absorption of initial start-up cost pending the stabilization and optimization of the blast furnace operations and an allowance for inventories written down to net realizable value of RM5.61 mil

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1074190*0.09/762504 = 0.1268, estimate PE on current price 1.67 = 12.74(DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1075033*0.06/763411 = 0.0845, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.44/18.88 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (37880+22520-29476)*0.83/763444*4*0.9 = 0.121, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.18/12.73 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0477*4*0.8 = 0.1526, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.56/11.25 (DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.04+0.0602)*2 = 0.2004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/10.96 (DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.31/16.69 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0517*4 = 0.2068(0.0517 is average eps of Q110,Q409,Q308, due to steel price decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.91/11.9 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0591*4 = 0.2364, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.39/9.31 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.048*4 = 0.192, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.68/13.54 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0682*4 = 0.2728, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.17/8.69 (DPS 0.03)

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