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Saturday, June 2, 2012

KLCI Stock - MAHSING / 8583 - 2012 Quarter 1


Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,683,868,887 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(2.02-0.076)/0.2863 = 6.79 (Moderate)
Target Price2.86+0.076 = 2.94 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.2863, DPS 0.076)
DecisionBUY if macd back to uptrend
Comment
Revenue increased 8.4% and was sixth consecutive quarter increasing (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 46.8%), eps increased 48.8% snd also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 46.4%, cash generated from operating after deduct receivables increase not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 13.1% of Group cash to cover all other expenses, maintained very high margin, weaker liquidity ratio from high to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, debt ratio at historical high now, all accounting ratio improved but inventory still at very high level, higher property development cost can indicate property business still good prospect, property division continue growth
First Support Price1.95
Second Support Price1.85
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
MIDF Target Price2.23 (2012-03-01)
CIMB Target Price2.51 (2012-05-29)
HLG Target Price2.37 (2012-05-29)
Kenanga Target Price2 (2012-05-29)
Maybank Target Price1.83 (2012-05-29)
OSK Target Price2.69 (2012-05-29)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity19.11%
Dividend Yield3.76%
Gross Profit Margin28.91%
Operating Profit Margin18.22%
Net Profit Margin18.39%
Tax Rate28.75%
Asset Turnover0.5634
Net Asset Value Per Share1.35
Net Tangible Asset per share1.33
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.49
Cash Per Share0.69
Liquidity Current Ratio2.9576
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.1901
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.6169
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.6682
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6221
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale107.4%
Days to sell the inventory489
Days to collect the receivables113
Days to pay the payables256

Technical Analysis 
SMA 201.958 (Uptrend 7 days)
SMA 502.001 (Downtrend)
SMA 1002.057 (Same)
SMA 2002.008 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.00034 ( 0.004157 )
Signal (9)-0.013323 ( 0.003416 )
MACD Histogram0.013663 (Bullish trend 8 days)
Bolinger Upper Band2.052
Bolinger Lower Band1.864

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s remaining undeveloped land was 1,531 acres and approximately RM18.2 billion in GDV and unbilled sales

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1151402*0.21/844481 = 0.2863, estimate PE on current price 2.02 = 6.79(DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1088489*0.18/853767 = 0.2295, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.69/7.73 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0499*4*0.95 = 0.1896, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.2/8.41 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0504*4 = 0.2016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.12/7.01 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0485*4 = 0.194, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.47/10.64 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0376*4*1.1 = 0.1654, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.05/13.2 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0357*4*1.1 = 0.1571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.6/10.85 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0355*4*1.1 = 0.1562, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.45/10.47 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.034*4*1.1 = 0.1496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.13/9.99 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0388*4 = 0.1552, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.6/10.53 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0373*4 = 0.1492, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.73/10.72 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0366*4 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.66/11.61 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.036*4 = 0.144, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.39 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0271*4 = 0.1084, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.33/13.28 (DPS 0.08)

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