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Friday, June 8, 2012

KLCI Stock - GENM / 4715 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info



Market Capital (Capital Size)21,059,557,250 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.54-0.086)/0.2449 = 14.1 (Moderate)
Target Price3.67+0.086 = 3.76 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.2449, DPS 0.086)
DecisionBUY when stock price sustain above SMA20 or wait MACD bullish cross
Comment
Revenue decreased 18.3% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.4%, eps decreased 22.4% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 35.1%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence increased borrowings to cover all other expenses, gross margin increasing, stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, 21.8% lower of debt ratio from recent high, all repayment period is good, Leisure & Hospitality business in Malaysia was weakening
First Support Price3.5
Second Support Price3.4
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Maybank Target Price4 (2012-04-17)
RHB Target Price4.2 (2012-04-27)
Jupiter Target Price3.93 (2012-05-21)
HLG Target Price4.1 (2012-05-31)
HwangDBS Target Price4.1 (2012-05-31)
Kenanga Target Price4.18 (2012-05-31)
AMMB Target Price4.3 (2012-06-04)
CIMB Target Price4 (2012-06-04)
OSK Target Price4.21 (2012-06-05)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.97%
Dividend Yield2.42%
Gross Profit Margin29.92%
Operating Profit Margin20.46%
Net Profit Margin19.88%
Tax Rate28.50%
Asset Turnover0.5219
Net Asset Value Per Share2.23
Net Tangible Asset per share1.47
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.61
Cash Per Share0.44
Liquidity Current Ratio1.8212
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.7742
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.5319
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2825
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2203
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale15.8%
Days to sell the inventory5
Days to collect the receivables16
Days to pay the payables81

Technical Analysis
SMA 203.612 (Downtrend 23 days)
SMA 503.737 (Downtrend)
SMA 1003.814 (Downtrend)
SMA 2003.726 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.048356 ( 0.001458 )
Signal (9)-0.043424 ( 0.001233 )
MACD Histogram0.004932 (Bearish trend 4 days)
Bolinger Upper Band3.892
Bolinger Lower Band3.332

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt mainly attributable to:-
1. Completion of the development of Resorts World Casino New York City (“RWNYC”) resulting in no further construction revenue being recognised from its development in the 1Q 2012. Construction revenue recorded in the 1Q 2011 was RM264.6 million
2. Construction loss of RM48.2 million incurred due to cost overrun from the development of RWNYC. Construction profit recorded in 1Q 2011 was RM13.4 million
3. Lower revenue from leisure and hospitality business in Malaysia mainly due to the weaker hold percentage in the premium players business despite an overall higher volume of business and higher payroll costs and promotional expenses
4. Lower revenue from leisure and hospitality business in the UK due to lower revenue and bad debts written off
5. Pre-operating expenses of RM17.7 million incurred in relation to the masterplan development of a destination resort in the City of Miami, Florida, US

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 12620517*0.11/5667574 = 0.2449, estimate PE on current price 3.54 = 14.1(DPS 0.086)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 11926797*0.12/5669441 = 0.2524, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.31/13.57 (DPS 0.086)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0613*4*1.1 = 0.2697, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.97/13.64 (DPS 0.082)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.0736+0.0617)*2*0.95 = 0.2571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.89/11.39 (DPS 0.082)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0736*4 = 0.2944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.08/11.18 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2241*1.1 = 0.2465, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.26/12.74 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0591*4 = 0.2364, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/13.16 (DPS 0.079)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2315*1.05 = 0.2431, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.98/11.85 (DPS 0.079)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2315*1.05 = 0.2431, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/9.82 (DPS 0.073)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0628*4 = 0.2512, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.25/9.7 (DPS 0.073)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0629*4 = 0.2516, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.45/10.33 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0577*4 = 0.2308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.35/11.44 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0481*4 = 0.1924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/12.79 (DPS 0.07)

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