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Sunday, February 20, 2011

KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)736,858,640 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.12-0.03)/0.0851 = 12.81 (High)
Target Price0.85+0.03 = 0.88 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.0851, DPS 0.03)
DecisionNOT BUY unless revenue and profit increase more
Revenue increased but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps same with revenue, got free and positive net cash flow, moderate liquidity ratio, moderate gearing ratio, inventory and payables period increased, number of stores increasing, raw material like cotton rising
First Support Price1.1
Second Support Price0.98

Research House
OSK Target Price0.95 (2010-11-30)
ECM Target Price1.07 (2010-12-28)
BIMB Target Price1.22 (2011-01-24)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity24.56%
Dividend Yield15.18%
Profit Margin18.77%
Tax Rate28.47%
Asset Turnover1.3674
Net Asset Value Per Share1.92
Net Tangible Asset per share1.86
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.68
Cash Per Share1.1
Liquidity Current Ratio2.4103
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.5792
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.2355
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.5057
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3359
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale31.9%
Days to sell the inventory126
Days to collect the receivables28
Days to pay the payables105

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Revenues for the quarter under review were RM136.6 million and Profit before Taxation was RM25.6 million. These were respectively 3% and 5% less than the same achieved in the previous year’s corresponding quarter

- The reduction in Revenues could be attributed to the shorter Hari Raya Aidilfitri shopping season of 2010. In 2009, Ramadan ended on 19th September, whereas in 2010, the month ended on 9th September. The relatively larger decline in Profit before Taxation however had resulted from increased expenses arising out of an expanded distribution network. In the 12 months ended 30th September 2010, the Group had opened 7 new outlets, closed 2, and added nearly 62,000 square feet to the gross floor area for retailing in Malaysia. As awareness for the new stores improves, we expect sales revenues to rise and contribute to future profitability

- Compared to the previous quarter, revenue for the quarter under review had increased by RM22.2 million or 19%. The increase was due to the month long carnival sales season that accompanied the Merdeka and Hari Raya festive celebrations occurring during the quarter under review. Profit before Taxation for the quarter considered also increased by nearly RM7million (37%). Profit before Taxation had risen quite substantially quarter-on-quarter because of the smaller percentage increase (11%) in operating expenses over the same periods considered

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4479*0.95/5 = 0.0851, estimate PE on current price 1.12 = 12.81(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.64/7.44 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

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