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Thursday, February 24, 2011

KLCI Stock - SEB / 5163 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)47,200,000 (Very Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.59/0.0496 = 11.90 (High)
Target Price0.0496*4.5 = 0.22 (PE 4.5, EPS 0.0496)
DecisionNot BUY unless revenue and profit stabilize in coming quarter
Revenue Second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than FY09, eps Decreased, lower than preceding year corresponding quarter also, only slightly better than FY10Q1, No free cash flow but net cash flow increasing, Revenue increasing but still low, profit dropped a lot if compare to FY09, cash increasing from CFF, liquidity ratio decreased but still at moderate level, gearing ratio increased at moderate level now, receivables increasing, expanding production capacity, steel price increasing, Europe market recovering
First Support Price0.59
Second Support Price0.585
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity5.57%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin14.63%
Tax Rate20.49%
Asset Turnover0.5462
Net Asset Value Per Share0.77
Net Tangible Asset per share0.77
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.79
Cash Per Share0.21
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1494
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6475
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.5756
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6458
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.39
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale66.8%
Days to sell the inventory116
Days to collect the receivables227
Days to pay the payables132

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):
- The current year results showed a Group revenue of RM50.62 million and a profit before taxation (“PBT”) of RM4.11 million as compared to a revenue of RM69.04 million and PBT of RM12.16 million in the previous financial year respectively

- The current quarter results showed a Group revenue of RM22.71 million and PBT of RM3.32 million as compared to a revenue of RM17.05 million and PBT of RM4.00 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year respectively

- The lower PBT for current year and current quarter as compared to preceding year and preceding year corresponding quarter was mainly due to lower margin

- The profit before taxation of RM3.32 million for the current quarter as compared to the profit before taxation in preceding quarter of RM0.11 million was mainly due to higher sales

- Revenue and profit dropped a lot when compared to FY09,08,07, average EPS in last 3 years was 0.1386, if FY10 still can achieve this result then PE base on current price 0.64 = 4.62

- Next quarter Q1 result maybe low, use year 2010 cum_eps to estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0431*1.15 = 0.0496(revenue, profit and receivables also largely increased), estimate PE on current price 0.59 = 11.9
- Revenue QbQ increasing more than 15%, use 10% profit margin, estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.0168+0.0193)*2 = 0.0722, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.63/8.1

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