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Friday, February 11, 2011

KLCI Stock - YTL / 4677 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)14,966,845,203 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(7.87-0.1)/0.5477 = 14.19 (Moderate)
Target Price8.76+0.1 = 8.86 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.5477, DPS 0.1)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased but is second highest all the time, eps largely increased and higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, free cash flow increasing but positive net cash flow decreasing, moderate liquidity ratio, gearing ratio increasing to very high level now, all accounting period are good, most of the business segments growing
First Support Price7.8
Second Support Price7.45
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Affin Target Price8.85 (2010-11-26)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.34%
Dividend Yield1.27%
Profit Margin14.16%
Tax Rate25.22%
Asset Turnover0.3593
Net Asset Value Per Share5.31
Net Tangible Asset per share2.88
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.96
Cash Per Share7.42
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1741
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.0069
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.5915
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio3.6853
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7534
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale58.6%
Days to sell the inventory36
Days to collect the receivables74
Days to pay the payables82

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded a revenue for the current quarter of RM4405.1 million representing an increase of 12.1%. Profit before taxation for the current financial quarter increased to RM623.8 million representing an increase of 24% when compared to the preceding year corresponding quarter ended 30 September 2009 of RM503.2 million. The increase in revenue and profit before taxation was substantially due to the better performance in multi utilities business segment of the Group and higher profit recognition from its offshore property development projects

- For the current financial quarter, Group revenue decreased by 6.6% whilst the profit before taxation increased by 9.8% when compared to the preceding quarter ended 30 June 2010. The increase in profit before taxation was substantially due to better performance from its offshore real estate investment and property development activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1304*4*1.05 = 0.5477(average eps 0.1304; 5% increase), estimate PE on current price 7.87 = 14.19(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1162*1.15*4 = 0.5345, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.9/13.55 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1178*4 = 0.4712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.93/14.85 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1178*4 = 0.4712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.16/14.44 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1162*4 = 0.4648, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.13/15.01 (DPS 0.075)

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