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Tuesday, February 15, 2011

KLCI Stock - GAMUDA / 5398 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)7,817,940,328 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.8-0.12)/0.1657 = 22.21 (Moderate)
Target Price3.81+0.12 = 3.93 (PE 23.0, EPS 0.1657, DPS 0.12)
DecisionNOT BUY unless price below 3.7
Comment
Revenue decreased but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps third consecutive quarter increasing and is highest since FY08Q3, got free and positive net cash flow, liquidity increased at moderate level now, gearing ratio decreased at above moderate now, inventory period increasing at historical high but other accounting period as usual
First Support Price3.7
Second Support Price3.45
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
AMMB Target Price4.2 (2010-12-20)
CIMB Target Price5.45 (2010-12-20)
ECM Target Price4.66 (2010-12-20)
OSK Target Price4.78 (2010-12-20)
MIDF Target Price4.68 (2011-01-10)
HwangDBS Target Price5.25 (2011-01-11)
Maybank Target Price4.45 (2011-02-02)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.80%
Dividend Yield3.16%
Profit Margin17.30%
Tax Rate17.54%
Asset Turnover0.3603
Net Asset Value Per Share1.68
Net Tangible Asset per share1.68
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.28
Cash Per Share0.82
Liquidity Current Ratio2.5051
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.9759
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.1452
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.8529
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4453
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale92.8%
Days to sell the inventory131
Days to collect the receivables184
Days to pay the payables110

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- For the current quarter under review, the Group recorded revenue and profit before taxation of RM634.2 million and RM109.7 million respectively as compared to RM624.0 million and RM94.5 million respectively in the preceding year comparative quarter. The net profit for the period increased from RM77.0 million to RM90.4 million. The increase in profit before tax and net profit for the period were due to higher contributions from the construction and property divisions

- The current quarter’s profit before taxation of RM109.7 million was slightly lower than the immediate preceding quarter’s profit before taxation of RM115.5 million. However, the current quarter’s net profit for the period of RM90.4 million was slightly higher than the immediate preceding quarter’s net profit for the period of RM87.7 million

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0789*2*1.05 = 0.1657, estimate PE on current price 3.8 = 22.21(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0371*4*1.1 = 0.1632, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.84/20.47 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0361*4 = 0.1444, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.73/20.78 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0336*4 = 0.1344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.14/19.2 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0311*4 = 0.1244, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.83/19.77 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0215*4 = 0.086, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.02/30.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0231*4 = 0.0924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.36/27.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0244*4 = 0.0976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.59/19.26 (DPS 0.08)

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