KLCI Stock - MAMEE / 5282 - 2009 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 151278995*3.11 = 470,477,674.45 (Small)
NTA per share : (223599-173)/145966 = 1.53
P/BV : 3.11/1.53 = 2.0327 (Moderate)
Forecast P/E now : (3.11-0.12)/0.2925 = 10.22 (High)
ROE : 19.38% (High)
DY : 0.12/3.11*100 = 3.86% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (1.3678+1.5552+1.5296+1.5321)/4 = 1.4962 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 142556/73426 = 1.9415 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (66494+68356)/2/(411498/365) = 59 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 2.63+0.12 = 2.75 (PE 9, EPS 0.2925, DPS 0.12)
My Decision : NOT BUY (unless price below 2.8)
My Comment : Revenue growing, profit margin increase but the ratio slow down, good cash flow, debt increased, navps decreased
Technical Support Price : 2.86, 2.75
Risk Rating : LOW

My study based on 2009 Quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group revenue and profit before tax rose 8% and 13% respectively compared to the corresponding period in the previous year. Group revenue and profit before tax for the year ended 31 December 2009 increased 4% and 87% respectively compared to the previous year. The improvement was mainly due to the improved cost structure as a result of higher production efficiency and stringent cost control of raw materials
- The Group recorded lower revenue and profit before tax in the fourth quarter compared to the festive third quarter, which coincided with Hari Raya. The lower profit before tax in the fourth quarter is also due to higher year-end advertising & promotion activities
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.528(5% grow from 0.5029), after bonus = 0.2925, estimate PE on current price 3.11 = 10.22(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.5456, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.59/4.58 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.521, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.14/3.67 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.485, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.15/4.39 (DPS 0.1)

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