KLCI Stock - TENAGA / 5347 - 2010 Quarter 2

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 4342766845*8.39 = 36,435,813,829.55 (Large)
NTA per share : 27424900/4334572 = 6.32
P/BV : 8.39/6.32 = 1.3275 (Moderate)
Forecast P/E now : (8.39-0.183)/0.71 = 11.56 (High)
ROE : 10.88% (Moderate)
DY : 0.183/8.39*100 = 2.18% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.4034+0.3544+0.3443+0.3132)/4 = 0.3538 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 138128/68396 = 2.0195 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (4389000+3791200)/2/(29191800/365) = 51 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 8.52+0.18 = 8.7 (PE 12, EPS 0.71, DPS 0.18)
My Decision : NOT BUY (unless price below 8)
My Comment : Global coal price increasing however strong Ringgit now, good cash flow, high debt, strong cash, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 8.37, 7.93
Risk Rating : HIGH
OSK Target Price : 10.15 (21 Apr 2010)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Sales of electricity in Peninsular Malaysia recorded an increase of 3.3%. The Company recorded an increase in demand of 8.0% growth as compared to the corresponding period last year
- The improved earnings were mainly due to a sharp rebound in electricity demand growth while generation cost as coal prices remained under control. The stronger Ringgit has also contributed to the better results as the Group recorded a foreign exchange translation gain as compared to a loss in FY2009
- The Group recorded foreign exchange translation gain compared to a loss recorded in the preceding quarter mainly due to the weakening of Japanese Yen against Ringgit during the quarter under review
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate PE on current price 8.39 = 11.56(DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)

Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/

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