KLCI Stock - ZHULIAN / 5131 - 2010 Quarter 1

Par Value: 0.50
Market Cap : 345000000*2.45= 845,250,000 (Small)
NTA per share : (328183-1168)/345000 = 0.95
P/BV : 2.45/0.95 = 2.5789 (Overvalue)
Forecast P/E now : (2.45-0.14)/0.288 = 8.02 (Moderate)
ROE : 25.58% (High)
DY : 0.14/2.45*100 = 5.71% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.8309+0.9197+0.8101)/3 = 0.8536 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 245861/67845 = 3.6239 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (59385+ 52340)/2/(330517/365) = 61 days
My Target Price : 2.59+0.14 = 2.73 (PE 9, EPS 0.288, DPS 0.14), 11.43% price increase from RM2.45
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue slow down and maintaining, low debt, good cash flow
Risk Rating : LOW

My notes based on 2010 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The revenue for the current quarter was slightly lower than the immediate preceding quarter, mainly due to drop in sales to overseas but offset by increase in local sales. However, the current quarter profit before tax has increased as compared to the immediate preceding quarter, mainly contributed by the increase in share of profit from associate company
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.072*4 = 0.288, estimate PE on current price 2.45 = 8.0208(DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0715*4 = 0.286, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.66/5.84 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.38/5.04 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0484*4 = 0.1936, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.35/6.56 (DPS 0.12)

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