KLCI Stock - AHEALTH / 7090 - 2009 Quarter 4

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 74973500*2.98 = 223,421,030 (Small)
NTA per share : (162547-1405)/74974= 2.15
P/BV : 2.98/2.15 = 1.386 (Moderate)
Forecast P/E now : (2.98-0.1975)/0.264 = 10.54 (Moderate)
ROE : 12.85% (Moderate)
DY : 0.1975/2.98*100 = 6.63% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (1.1905+1.1878+1.148+1.1949)/4 = 1.1803 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 129709/52199 = 2.4849 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (68197+67706)/2/(282719/365) = 87 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 2.11 + 0.2 = 2.31 (PE 8, EPS 0.264, DPS 0.2)
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Profit increased but revenue not grow, low ROE, good cash flow
Technical Support Price : 2.8, 2.7
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2009 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group's achieved record revenues and profit before tax increases of 9.1% and 58.2% respectively over the result for the previous financial year
- Manufacturing revenue and profits exceeded budget in the fourth quarter, helped by good acceptance of newly launched products, better export and tender sales. A Representative Office in Vietnam was opened to direct and strengthen marketing initiatives. Wholesale and Distribution returned improved gross margins, attributed to a greater proportion of own brand products in the sales mix and better purchasing
- Profit contribution from the Group's associated company, Xiamen Maidiken Science & Technology Co Ltd ('MDK'), China, 18% growth in revenue in the year 2009. During the year, MDK's intermediate holding company for its retail and distribution operations, Luyan (Fujian) Pharma Co Ltd, issued new shares at a premium to new investors for a 24.5% equity stake. Recognition of the Group's share of the premium further enhanced Group profits in the fourth quarter of 2009
- Compared to preceding quarter, increased profit mainly attributed to improved gross profits arising from a higher proportion of own brand products in the Group’s sales mix, increased manufacturing efficiency at Xepa-Soul Pattinson (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd and a strong profit contribution from the Group’s associate company in China, Xiamen Maidiken Science and Technology Co Ltd
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3048 (10% grow from 0.2771(after deducted 3.4 mil)), estimate PE on current price 2.98 = 9.13(DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2385, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.82/7.26 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2365, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.83/6.44 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.64/5.47 (DPS 0.095)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.11/4.59 (DPS 0.095)

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