KLCI Stock - GTRONIC / 7022 - 2010 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 264590740*1.65= 436,574,721 (Small)
NTA per share : 227688/264591 = 0.86
P/BV : 1.65/0.86 = 1.9186 (Overvalue)
Forecast P/E now : (1.65-0.055)/0.0957 = 16.41 (High)
ROE : 9.64% (Low)
DY : 0.08/1.65*100 = 4.85% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.7869+0.9454+1.0172+1.1085)/4 = 0.9645
Liquidity Ratio : 140251/42157 = 3.3269 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (39767+31157)/2/(239629/365) = 54 days
My Target Price : 0.77+0.08 = 0.85 (PE 8, EPS 0.0957, DPS 0.08)
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue growing but still not reach year 2007 level, low debt, good cash flow, strong cash, navps slightly increased
Technical Support Price : 1.47, 1.39, 1.2
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2010 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s turnover and net profit for the first quarter ended 31 March 2010 increased significantly by 58% and 29 times respectively as compared to the first quarter of the previous year mainly due to higher volume loadings from all the Group’s customers as a result of recovery of the global economy. The net profit is better this quarter as the Group incurred shutdown and impairment loss when the Group’s China factory ceased operations in the previous year
- Turnover for this quarter recorded a decrease of 7.4% as compared to the preceding quarter while the net profit of the Group increased by 2.3%. The decrease in turnover is mainly due to softer volume loadings from the Group’s key customers after the year-end festive seasons. The
slight increase in net profit is due to shutdown and impairment loss recognized in the previous year for the Group’s China operations
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0904+0.0007+(0.0911*0.05) = 0.0957(adjustment from 0.0233-0.0226 and 5% grow adjustment), estimate PE on current price 1.65 = 16.41(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0226*4 = 0.0904, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.36/9.07 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0183*4 = 0.0732, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.64/8.74 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0137*4 = 0.0548, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.78/13.05 (DPS 0.025)

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