KLCI Stock - GTRONIC / 7022 - 2009 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 263933640*1.55= 409,097,142 (14 April 2010)
Market Cap Size Category : Small
NTA per share : 226493/263934 = 0.86
P/BV : 1.55/0.86 = 1.8023 (Overvalue)
Forecast P/E now : (1.55-0.07)/0.0904 = 16.37 (High)
ROE : 7.03% (Low)
DY : 0.07/1.55*100 = 4.52% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.7869+0.9454+1.0172+1.1085)/4 = 0.9645
Liquidity Ratio : 136647/45375 = 3.0115 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (38250+42686)/2/(217497/365) = 67 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless price below NTA per share
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : High P/E, overvalue, revenue growing, low debt, good cash flow
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2009 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s turnover and net profit for the year ended 31 December 2009 have decreased by 21.1% and 27.1% respectively as compared to the previous year. The decline is mainly due to the global economy slowdown which has impacted the volume loadings from all the Group’s customers, especially during first half of the year. Moreover, losses incurred due to the shutdown of the Group’s China operations (approximately RM8 million as of to-date) further eroded the net profit of the group
- Turnover for the quarter ended 31 December 2009 was approximately RM65.1 million, representing an increase of 5.3% as compared to the preceding quarter whereas the net profit of the Group decreased by 1.6% from RM6.1 million to RM6 million. The increment in sales is mainly due to higher volume loadings from all the Group’s key customers, mostly as a result of a broad based recovery experienced and stable loadings across all products segments, as well as better economy of scale achieved by the Group. Lower net profit is because of losses incurred as a result of the shutdown of the Group’s China operations
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0226*4 = 0.0904, estimate PE on current price 1.55 = 16.37(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0183*4 = 0.0732, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.64/8.74 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0137*4 = 0.0548, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.78/13.05 (DPS 0.025)

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