KLCI Stock - LATEXX / 7064 - 2009 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 814,441,644.87 (12 April 2010)
NTA per share : (170536-20358)/244718=0.6137
P/B : 3.99/0.6137=6.5015
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.9833+0.9451+0.8647)/3=0.931
Liquidity Ratio : 131176/113406=1.1567
Receivables Collection Period : (58519+44029)/2/(328430/365)=56 days

My Target Price: 3.77+0.02 = 3.79 (PE 13 (due to high debt), EPS 0.29, DPS 0.02)
My decison: NOT BUY (unless price less than 3.8)
My Comment: Overvalue now, high debt per equity, revenue growth around 47% whole year, good cash flow

My notes based on 2009 Quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The increase in Group revenue and profit were mainly driven by recent capacity expansion coupled with aggressive marketing strategy and as well as overall cost savings
- Despite the increase in raw material prices and the weakening of US dollar, the increase in Group profit was due principally to increased sales volume and improved overall efficiency achieved giving rise to lower overheads, operational and supervision costs
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0675*4 = 0.27+0.02(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.29, estimate PE on current price 4.22 = 14.48(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0566*4 = 0.2264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.78/10.42 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0586*4 = 0.2344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.99/7.81 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.047*4 = 0.188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/4.2 (DPS 0.01)