KLCI Stock - NCB / 5509 - 2010 Quarter 1

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 470252708*3.29 = 1,547,131,409.32 (Medium)
NTA per share : (1893127-65576)/470253 = 3.89 (increased)
P/BV : 3.29/3.89 = 0.8458 (Undervalue)
Forecast P/E now : (3.29-0.28)/0.3383 = 8.9 (Moderate)
ROE : 8.15% (Low)
DY : 0.28/3.29*100 = 8.51% (High)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.4044+0.4433+0.4567)/3 = 0.4348 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 1050733/174569 = 6.019 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (190744+155744)/2/(852914/365) = 74 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 3.38+0.28 = 3.66 (PE 10, EPS 0.3383, DPS 0.28)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue recovering but still not yet reach year 2008 result, good cash flow, low debt, navps increasing, strong cash
Technical Support Price : 3.11, 2.9
Risk Rating : LOW

My study based on 2010 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s revenue for the current quarter is 11.4% higher than the corresponding comparative quarter’s. The increase in revenue for the current quarter was mainly due to increased business volume undertaken by the port operating subsidiary
- Northport achieved a throughput during the current quarter of 779,867 TEUs reflecting an increase of 25.6% as compared to the corresponding period last year of 620,633 TEUs. As for the haulage division in the haulage/logistics subsidiary the total volume handled during the quarter is 61,905 TEUs which is an increase of 3.8% as compared to the figure for the corresponding quarter in 2009 of 59,631 TEUs
- For the first quarter under review, the increase in the volume handled was recorded in all categories i.e. import, export and transshipment. The increase in business was mainly due to improved business volume due to the recovery of economy
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3383(add adjustment of 0.0183), estimate PE on current price 3.29 = 8.89(DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.32(around 7% grow from 0.2999, expect improve in first half quarter, second half remain), estimate PE highest/lowest = 10.84/9.19 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.3124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.57/8.8 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2617, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.89/10.2 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2647, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.03 (DPS 0.25)

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