KLCI Stock - TGUAN / 7034 - 2009 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 105204500*0.785 = 82,585,532.50 (Small)
NTA per share : 203455/105205 = 1.93
P/BV : 0.785/1.93 = 0.4067 (Undervalue)
Forecast P/E now : (0.785-0.04)/0.1351 = 5.51 (Low)
ROE : 6.98% (Low)
DY : 0.04/0.785*100 = 5.1% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (1.417+1.8959+1.5405+1.5047)/4 = 1.5895 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 177910/72264 = 2.4619 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (60222+76298)/2/(403060/365) = 61 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue or cost improved more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue growing but cost also increasing, low debt, good cash flow, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 0.76, 0.7
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2009 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Group revenue recorded a decrease of 28.61%, mainly due to the significantly lower average prices of raw materials compared to the corresponding period in 2008 which translated to lower selling prices. However profit before taxation recorded an increase of 359%, mainly due to the written down in the value of the Group's inventories to its net realizable value in the preceding year
- As compared to preceding quarter, the revenue increased 5.79% while profit before taxation decreased 31.09% mainly due to the relative higher selling prices as a result of higher raw material price and lower profit margin
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1351 (revenue growth but cost also increasing), estimate PE on current price 0.785 = 5.51(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.42/5.45 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1138, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.73/6.63 (DPS 0.02)

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