KLCI Stock - NCB / 5509 - 2009 Quarter 4

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 470252708*3.35 = 1,575,346,571.80 (Medium)
NTA per share : (1844907-69960)/470253 = 3.77
P/BV : 3.35/3.77 = 0.8886 (Undervalue)
Forecast P/E now : (3.35-0.28)/0.32 = 9.59 (Moderate)
ROE : 7.63% (Low)
DY : 0.28/3.35*100 = 8.36% (High)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.4029+0.4701+0.4472+0.4375)/4 = 0.4394 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 975336/169406 = 5.7574 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (163234+173087)/2/(831415/365) = 73 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 2.88+0.28 = 3.16 (PE 9, EPS 0.32, DPS 0.28)
My Decision : NOT BUY (unless price blow 3.2)
My Comment : Revenue recovering but still not yet reach year 2008 result, good cash flow, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 3.11, 2.9
Risk Rating : LOW

My study based on 2009 Quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group's recorded a 3.3% lower revenue compared to last year corresponding quarter. The year-to-date revenue of the Group recorded a decrease of 12.1% compared to the corresponding period, mainly due to decreased business volume undertaken by the haulage/logistics subsidiary
- Northport achieved a throughput during the current quarter of 798,500 TEUs reflecting an increase of 11.5% as compared to the corresponding period last year of 715,943 TEUs. The year-to-date throughput achieved is 2,858,341 TEUs representing a decrease of 4.9% compared against the corresponding period last year of 3,005,920 TEUs
- The haulage division in the haulage/logistics subsidiary the total volume handled during the quarter is 71,647 TEUs which is a decrease of 5.1% as compared to the figure for the corresponding quarter in 2008 of 75,519 TEUs. The year-to-date volume achieved is 268,075 TEUs representing a decrease of 22.1% compared to the figure for the corresponding period last year of 344,468 TEUs
- For the quarter under review, the increase in the volume handled was recorded in all categories i.e. import, export and transshipment
- The port operation has registered a steady increase in the throughput handled during the last quarter and is expecting that this trend will continue in the year 2010. The haulage/logistics subsidiary has also registered improvements in its non-haulage businesses and it is expected to be sustained in the year 2010
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.32(around 7% grow from 0.2999, expect improve in first half quarter, second half remain), estimate PE on current price 3.35 = 9.59(DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.3124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.57/8.8 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2617, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.89/10.2 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2647, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.03 (DPS 0.25)