KLCI Stock - WCT / 9679 - 2010 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 783034420*2.48 = 1,941,925,361.60 (Moderate)
NTA per share : 1228575/792429 = 1.55
P/BV : 2.48/1.55 = 1.6
Forecast P/E now : (2.48-0.1)/0.128 = 18.59 (High)
ROE : 9.56% (Low)
DY : 0.1/2.48*100 = 4.03% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.0503+0.8318+0.7633)/3 = 0.8818 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 2004215/1587333 = 1.2626 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (1008383+1579642)/2/(4097769/365) = 115 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue recover
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue dropped too much, bad cash flow, high debt, navps decreased
Technical Support Price : 2.3, 1.8
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 2.75 (25 May 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.128 (20% drop from 0.16), estimate PE on current price 2.48 = 18.59(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.88/15.13 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/13.75 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0535*4 = 0.214, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.85/11.07 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/8.48 (DPS 0.095, economy crisis)

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