KLCI Stock - AHEALTH / 7090 - 2010 Quarter 1

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 74973500*2.88 = 215,923,680 (Small)
NTA per share : (169219-1344)/74974 = 2.24
P/BV : 2.88/2.24 = 1.2857
Forecast P/E now : (2.88-0.1975)/0.32 = 8.38 (Moderate)
ROE : 13.85% (Moderate)
DY : 0.1975/2.88*100 = 6.86% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.1547+1.1427+1.1378)/3 = 1.1451 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 142356/59071 = 2.41 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (74791+73366)/2/(289975/365) = 93 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 2.56 + 0.2 = 2.76 (PE 8, EPS 0.32, DPS 0.2)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price less than 2.8
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased, good cash flow, moderate debt, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 2.8, 2.7
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- For the first quarter of 2010, the Group achieved revenue increases of 10% and profit before tax increases of 49%
- Manufacturing continued to perform strongly, boosted by a 40% growth in sales into the Malaysian private sector over the same period last year. Pharmaceutical wholesale, marketing and distribution also returned record results, with sales and distribution of the Consumer Division exceeding budget. Own brand products introduced into the market in the first quarter include Aslene (orlistat) for weight management, and AvoMeter, a range of blood glucose monitors and test strips
- Operations in China maintained its growth momentum, with first quarter 2010 attributable net profits increasing more than threefold over that achieved in the same period last year
- Profit before tax for the current quarter is 28% lower than the last quarter of 2009. In the last quarter of 2009, Xiamen Maidiken Science & Technology Co Ltd's intermediate holding company for its retail and distribution operations, Luyan (Fujian) Pharma Co Ltd, issued new shares at a premium to new investors for a 24.5% equity stake. Recognition by Group of it's share of the premium contributed a non-recurring income of RM 3.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2009
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.32 (add 5% adjustment from 0.3048 due to profit boosted), estimate PE on current price 2.88 = 8.38(DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3048 (10% grow from 0.2771(after deducted 3.4 mil)), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/6.18 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2385, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.82/7.26 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2365, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.83/6.44 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.64/5.47 (DPS 0.095)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.11/4.59 (DPS 0.095)

AHEALTH latest news (English)