KLCI Stock - PETGAS / 6033 - 2010 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 1978731915*9.92 = 19,648,807,915.95 (Large)
NTA per share : 8015870/1978732 = 4.05 (Increased)
P/BV : 9.93/4.05 = 2.4519
Forecast P/E now : (9.93-0.5)/0.4612 = 20.45 (High)
ROE : 11.74% (Moderate)
DY : 0.5/9.93*100 = 5.04% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.3276+0.3461+0.3192+0.3142)/4 = 0.3268 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 2747999/234444 = 11.72 (Very Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (322228+319810)/2/(3221843/365) = 36 days (Good)
My Target Price : 8.76+0.5 = 9.26 (PE 19, EPS 0.4612, DPS 0.5)
My Decision : NOT BUY (unless price below 9.3)
My Comment : Revenue dropping, cost increasing, good cash flow, low debt, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 9.65, 9.55
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 13.81 (7 Apr 10)

My study based on 2010 Quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Compared to last year corresponding period, the decrease of revenue was due to lower throughput revenue and utilities sales
- Compared to preceding quarter, revenue recorded a decrease of RM8.7 million from the preceding quarter due to lower utilities sales
- Profit before tax for the current quarter was RM65.8 million lower than the preceding quarter mainly due to higher cost of revenue
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4612(3% dropped from 0.4755), estimate PE on current price 9.93 = 20.45(DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5(0.37+0.13), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.2/18.12 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.26 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/19.47 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.06/19.15 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.21/18.94 (DPS 0.05)

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