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Saturday, December 11, 2010

KLCI Stock - AMWAY / 6351 - 2010 Quarter 3

AMWAY (MALAYSIA) HOLDINGS BERHAD

Listing Date:30.08.1996
Market:MAIN
Sector:TRADING/SERVICES
Par Value:1.00
Major Industry:Retailers
Sub Industry:Miscellaneous Retailers

My Forecast P/E now:(8.12-0.64)/0.5497 = 13.61 (Moderate)
My Target Price:8.8+0.64 = 9.44 (EPS 0.5497, PE 16, DPS 0.64)
My Decision:BUY
My Comment:Revenue increasing, profit maintain high, good cash flow, liquidity ratio getting lower, strong cash, gearing ratio getting higher, working capital getting lesser, continue to benefit from weak USD
Technical Support Price:8.1
Risk Rating:LOW
OSK Target Price:10.83 (16 Nov 10)

Latest Market Capital (Capital Size)1,334,811,437 (Very Large)
Return on Equity30.85%
Dividend Yield7.88%
Profit Margin0.1504
Asset Turnover1.795
Tax Rate0.2533
Net Asset Value Per Share1.56
Net Tangible Asset per share1.53
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share5.39
Cash Per Share1.32
Liquidity Current Ratio2.0602
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6529
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.5745
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.5353
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3487
Average working capital per thousand Ringgit sale20.6%
Average days to sell the inventory40
Average days to collect the receivables5

Company Description
AMWAY (MALAYSIA) HOLDINGS BERHAD is an investment holding company. Through its, the Company is principally engaged in the distribution of consumer products under the Amway trademark. Amway offers a range of brands from nutritional supplements to water treatment, cosmetics to cleaning products. Amway's major brand is the NUTRILITE. NUTRILITE is a global vitamin and mineral brand, which grows, harvests and processes plants on their own certified organic farms. Under ARTISTRY, Amway supplies facial skin care products and color cosmetics. The Company's SATINIQUE products focus on hair care. Amway's other product brands include eSpring and iCook. The eSpring Water Purifier is an in-home system to combine ultraviolet light technology with a multi-stage carbon-block filter to provide drinking water. iCook offers a range of Cookware products. The Company also offers home care products.

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s sales revenue recorded an increase of 9.5% for the quarter under review and 8.8% for the nine months ended 30 September 2010 as compared to the corresponding periods in the preceding year. The growth in sales revenue was mainly attributable to increase in distributors’ productivity driven by sales and marketing program implemented in the periods under review

- The Group’s profit before tax increased by 1.6% foAugr the quarter under review and 6.0% for the nine months ended 30 September 2010 as compared to the corresponding periods in the preceding year mainly due to the increase in sales revenue

- The Group’s sales revenue increased by 13.8% as compared to the preceding quarter mainly due to enhanced sales and marketing program implemented in the quarter under review

- The Group’s profit before tax decreased by 3.9% as compared to the preceding quarter mainly due to higher advertising and promotion expenses incurred during the quarter under review

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3335+(0.1246*1.2) = 0.5497, estimate PE on current price 8.12 = 13.61(DPS 0.64)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3335+(0.1246*1.2) = 0.5497, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.04/13.43 (DPS 0.52)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3261+(0.099*1.1) = 0.4676(Correction to preceding Q estimated), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.3/14.71 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0996*4 = 0.3984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.62/16.99 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1246*4 = 0.4984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.98/13.46 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.099*4 = 0.396, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.6/16.92 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.118*4 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.79/13.73 (DPS 0.52)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1332*4 = 0.5328, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.06/11.75 (DPS 0.54)

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