| My Forecast P/E now | : | (16.16-1.645)/0.8313 = 17.46 (High) |
| My Target Price | : | Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more |
| My Decision | : | NOT BUY |
| My Comment | : | Revenue and profit still increasing if compare to preceding year corresponding quarter but slow down, good cash flow, better liquidity ratio, better gearing ratio, better working capital, prices of key raw materials increasing, Coke distribution rights end on Sept 2011, involved into snack business |
| Technical Support Price | : | 14 |
| Risk Rating | : | MODERATE |
| Latest Market Capital (Capital Size) | 5,796,076,512 (Very Large) |
| Return on Equity | 38.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 9.41% |
| Profit Margin | 48.89% |
| Asset Turnover | 1.3063 |
| Tax Rate | 4.51% |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 5.0 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | 4.67 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | 3.13 |
| Cash Per Share | 2.62 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 2.053 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 1.6968 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 0.9734 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 0.6524 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.3948 |
| Average working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 26.2% |
| Average days to sell the inventory | 43 |
| Average days to collect the receivables | 50 |
My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Group revenue grew 24% due to strong festive sales for soft drinks and improved demand for dairies products in Malaysia, Thailand and Indochina. The sales of Ampang development project for RM54m generated higher revenue for the property division
- Group operating profit for the quarter, excluding profit from the sales of Ampang development project of RM20 million, increased 20% on a normalised basis over that of last year due to profit from favourable volume variance from soft drinks which was partially offset by higher raw material cost affecting the dairies division during the quarter
- Interest expense from the medium term notes of the Group charged out to the income statement is higher than last year where part of the interest expense was previously capitalised in respect of the dairy’s factory in Thailand which was then under construction. The proceeds from the divestment of the glass container business placed with financial institution generated higher interest income for the Group
- Group profit after taxation for the quarter improved 73% to RM80 million and effective tax rate declined to 21.4% from 25% previously, benefiting from the tax incentives enjoyed by the Dairies plant in Rojana, Thailand
- Group PBT of the continuing operations for the quarter was 13% higher than the preceding quarter mainly due to the gain from disposal of Ampang development project which was partially off set by lower dairies division profits
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.875*0.95 = 0.8313, estimate PE on current price 16.16 = 17.46(DPS 1.645)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.8236(correction), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/15.85 (DPS 0.465)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.0072(10% grow from 0.4578*2), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.43/10.18 (DPS 0.465)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.961(10% grow from 0.2184*4), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.06/10.44 (DPS 0.47)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.8195, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.58/12.04 (DPS 0.47)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.8, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.79/11.29 (DPS 0.47)
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