KLCI Stock - KPJ / 5878 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	2,184,211,185 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(3.9-0.13)/0.2226 = 16.94 (High)
Target Price	3.56+0.13 = 3.69 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.2226, DPS 0.13)
Decision	NOT BUY unless price below 3.7
Comment	Revenue is highest all the time, eps is second consecutive quarter increasing, no free cash flow but net cash flow increased, liquidity ratio decreasing at low level now, high gearing ratio, all accounting period are acceptable, hospital increasing
First Support Price	3.7
Second Support Price	3.45
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	14.50%
Dividend Yield	2.56%
Profit Margin	9.88%
Tax Rate	22.85%
Asset Turnover	1.0161
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.26
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.05
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	3.6
Cash Per Share	0.34
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.2831
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.1896
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.4771
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.9924
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4688
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	7.4%
Days to sell the inventory	10
Days to collect the receivables	66
Days to pay the payables	69

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The profit before taxation for the current quarter has increased by 16.5% to RM43.1 million from RM37.0 million in the corresponding quarter 2009. The increase is in line with the increase in revenue of the hospitals

- The profit before taxation for the current quarter of RM43.1 million increased by 4.4% compared to the preceding quarter of RM41.3 million. The increase in the net profit before tax is in line with the increase in revenue and contribution from the hospitals

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0512*4*1.1 = 0.2253, estimate PE on current price 3.9 = 16.73(DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0506*4*1.1 = 0.2226, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.34/13.7 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2174, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.25/13.02 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1359*4 = 0.5436(after split 2.5 = 0.2174), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.89/10.9 (DPS 0.2 or 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1291*4 = 0.5164, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.24/6.29 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1188*4 = 0.4752, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.61/6.92 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1046*4 = 0.4184, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.29/6.74 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.107*4 = 0.428, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.99/6.17 (DPS 0.07)

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