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Wednesday, January 5, 2011

KLCI Stock - YTLPOWR / 6742 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)17,737,581,305 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.44-0.15)/0.1889 = 12.12 (Moderate)
Target Price2.64+0.15 = 2.79 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1889, DPS 0.15)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps same with revenue, got free and postive net cash flow, moderate liquidity ratio, very high gearing ratio, all accounting period are getting better, consolidated with PowerSeraya increased more stable profit, going to launch WiMAX, oil shale projects
First Support Price2.38
Second Support Price2.3
Risk RatingLOW

Research House
AMMB Target Price2.97 (2010-11-22)
Credit Suisse Target Price2.42 (2010-12-15)
MIDF Target Price2.8 (2010-12-15)
TA Target Price2.85 (2010-12-15)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity17.39%
Dividend Yield5.38%
Profit Margin10.96%
Tax Rate29.37%
Asset Turnover0.3932
Net Asset Value Per Share0.98
Net Tangible Asset per share0.19
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share13.16
Cash Per Share1.01
Liquidity Current Ratio2.307
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.1501
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.7131
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio3.5597
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7808
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale43.9%
Days to sell the inventory23
Days to collect the receivables53
Days to pay the payables69

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Group revenue was 8.8% higher for the current quarter ended 30 September 2010 as compared to the preceding year corresponding quarter ended 30 September 2009

- The Group pbt for the current quarter was an increase of 19.7% as compared to the preceding year corresponding quarter. These increases were attributable to better performance in multi utilities business (merchant) segment of the Group

- The decrease in Group pbt as compared to the preceding quarter were principally due to lower contribution from the business segments of the Group and currency translation arising from the strengthening of ringgit Malaysia

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1717*1.1 = 0.1889, estimate PE on current price 2.44 = 12.12(DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1717*1.1 = 0.1889, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.82/11.12 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0404*4 = 0.1616, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.37/12.56 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0356*4 = 0.1424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.1/14.04 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0328*4 = 0.1312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.23/15.02 (DPS 0.15)
- No Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0335*4 = 0.134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.45/14.48 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0334*4 = 0.1336, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.6/12.72 (DPS 0.15)

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