KLCI Stock - TENAGA / 5347 - 2011 Quarter 1

TENAGA NASIONAL BERHAD

Company Description

TENAGA NASIONAL BERHAD (TNB) is engaged in the business of the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity. The Company’s subsidiaries include TNB Engineering Corporation Sdn Bhd, TNB Repair and Maintenance Sdn Bhd, TNB Engineers Sdn Bhd, TNB Capital (L) Ltd, Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd, Malaysia Transformer Manufacturing Sdn Bhd and TNB Coal International Ltd. The principal activities of the subsidiaries include project management and consultancy, engineering works and energy project development services, repair, maintenance and testing of power plants, providing engineering, procurement and construction services for power related projects and investment holding. In December 2007, it acquired Orion Mission Sdn. Bhd. As of March 3, 2008, Khazanah Nasional Berhad held 100% interest in the Company.

Company Info

Listing Date	1992-05-28
Market Capital (Capital Size)	34,340,251,661 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00
Board	Main
Sector	Trading/Services
Major Industry	Utilities
Sub Industry	Power Generation
Website	http://www.tnb.com.my

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(6.3-0.21)/0.5884 = 10.35 (Moderate)
Target Price	7.06+0.21 = 7.27 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.5884, DPS 0.21)
Decision	BUY
Comment	Revenue decreased 1.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.3%, eps increased 83.1% and higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.6%, got both positive free and net cash flow, low liquidity ratio, above moderate gearing ratio, all accounting periods are good, high coal price, strenthening MYR against USD and JPY
First Support Price	6.15
Second Support Price	5.95
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

CIMB Target Price	6.75 (2010-12-27)
RHB Target Price	7.5 (2011-01-18)
ECM Target Price	7.58 (2011-01-21)
HwangDBS Target Price	8.1 (2011-01-21)
Maybank Target Price	6 (2011-01-21)
OSK Target Price	7.74 (2011-01-21)
TA Target Price	6.81 (2011-01-21)
ZJ Target Price	6.8 (2011-03-01)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	11.30%
Dividend Yield	4.13%
Profit Margin	12.91%
Tax Rate	28.34%
Asset Turnover	0.4104
Net Asset Value Per Share	6.77
Net Tangible Asset per share	6.77
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.96
Cash Per Share	2.14
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.576
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.3277
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.9415
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.5265
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.6039
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	18.7%
Days to sell the inventory	34
Days to collect the receivables	45
Days to pay the payables	77

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Performance of the current three months ended 30 November 2010 against the corresponding three months ended 30 November 2009 was 5.3% or RM388.1 million increase in revenue, mainly due to an increase in sales of electricity in the Peninsula and SESB. The electricity demand has shown a growth of 5% in Peninsula and 6.4% in SESB as compared to the corresponding period last financial year

- Revenue grew by about 5.3% whereas operating expenses increased by 6.1% resulting in a marginal increase of 1% only in operating profits. Operating expenses increased at a faster rate mainly due to higher generation costs from utilization of coal where the average contracted coal price consumed was USD95.5/MT as compared to USD79.5/MT in the corresponding period last financial year

- The quarter under review also showed an increase in forex translation loss of RM104.8 million as compared to RM45.4 million in the corresponding quarter due to the strengthening of the JPY and USD against the MYR

- The Group reported a revenue of RM7726.4 million for the current quarter, a decrease of 1.8% as compared to the preceding quarter which reported a revenue of RM7869.4 million

- Despite the lower revenue, operating profit recorded an increase of 75%, amounting to RM537 million. The comparatively lower operating expenses incurred during the current quarter resulted in a net profit after tax of RM712.9 million, an increase of 83.5% as compared to RM388.4 million reported in the previous quarter. The decrease in operating expenses was mainly attributed by a lower fuel cost(6.8%) as compared to Q4 FY2010

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7355*0.8 = 0.5884, estimate PE on current price 6.3 = 10.35(DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.21/21.88 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)

Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/

MYR/JPY chart

TENAGA latest news (English)

TENAGA latest news (Chinese)

Financial Quarter Summary

a_date	year	qrt	h_price	l_price	div	roe	c_roe	rev	c_rev	pbt	c_pbt	prof	c_prof	eps	c_eps	asset	liab	mino	equi	cfo	cfi	cff	cash	fcf	net	final	share	c_share	m_cap	date	prof_m	vat	asset_t	pe	navps	ntaps	p/ntaps	cps	l_cur	l_qui	l_cash	g_de	g_da	avg_w	inv_d	rec_d	pay_d
2011-01-19	2011	1	N/A	N/A	-	2.41%	2.41%	7726400	7726400	997600	997600	712900	712900	0.1630	0.1630	74829400	45188800	37600	29640600	1671900	579100	185400	8341500	1092800	907400	9248900	4374720	4374720	28391932	2010-11-30	12.91%	28.34%	0.4104	-	6.77	6.77	0.96	2.14	1.576	1.3277	0.9415	1.5265	0.6039	18.7%	34	45	77
2010-10-28	2010	4	8.88	6.44	0.2	1.35%	18.05%	7869400	32320100	499900	6022100	388400	5201900	0.0890	1.1925	74081100	45266600	35600	28814500	7974800	3543700	2249100	6161700	4431100	2182000	8343700	4362060	4362060	38691472	2010-08-31	6.35%	22.18%	0.4093	7.438	6.6	6.6	1.34	1.93	1.5252	1.2726	0.8685	1.5729	0.611	16.8%	34	47	86
2010-07-14	2010	3	9.29	8.54	-	3.90%	9.91%	7723300	22450700	1286800	3522200	1107100	2813500	0.2539	0.6453	73276800	44893000	35000	28383800	5692500	2265200	1624100	6162300	3427300	1803200	7965500	4359807	4359807	37537938	2010-05-31	16.66%	13.79%	0.4082	-	6.5	6.5	1.32	1.85	2.0393	1.715	1.1506	1.5836	0.6126	24.3%	32	48	79
2010-04-20	2010	2	8.8	8.0	0.06	3.64%	6.21%	7389100	14727400	1262300	2235400	1000100	1706400	0.2296	0.3917	72714100	45256400	32800	27457700	3246200	1357700	979000	6163000	1888500	909500	7072500	4356600	4356600	37031100	2010-02-28	17.08%	20.66%	0.4015	-	6.3	6.3	1.35	1.64	2.0195	1.6951	1.0459	1.6502	0.6224	23.9%	32	55	77
2010-01-20	2010	1	8.84	7.73	-	2.67%	2.67%	7338300	7338300	973100	973100	706300	706300	0.1621	0.1621	71995100	45568400	31400	26426700	1550000	572400	479500	6158700	977600	498100	6656800	4356949	4356949	35552703	2009-11-30	13.26%	28.32%	0.3988	-	6.06	6.06	1.35	1.53	1.6913	1.4165	0.8776	1.7264	0.6329	18.3%	30	52	89
2009-10-26	2009	4	8.55	8.08	0.123	0.63%	3.52%	7462600	28785600	260100	1543100	164300	917900	0.0379	0.2115	71363000	45316700	40200	26046300	7409900	3832900	2794100	5381000	3577000	782900	6163900	4340182	4340182	36804743	2009-08-31	3.49%	48.71%	0.4034	40.0967	5.99	5.99	1.42	1.43	1.6466	1.3773	0.8516	1.7425	0.635	16.3%	28	48	85
2009-07-22	2009	3	8.57	7.95	-	3.94%	2.91%	7001800	21323000	1240300	1283000	1023100	753600	0.2360	0.1739	70179700	44245400	71100	25934300	4711500	2567800	2432400	5382000	2143700	288700	5093300	4334604	4334604	36410673	2009-05-31	17.71%	18.91%	0.3999	-	5.97	5.97	1.41	1.18	1.7071	1.3594	0.7793	1.7107	0.6305	16.5%	33	49	75
2009-04-15	2009	2	8.6	6.7	0.04	2.69%	1.08%	6906600	14321200	815400	42700	674600	269500	0.1556	0.0622	69705100	44670300	88000	25034800	2486900	1629700	1718400	5386500	857200	861200	4525300	4334572	4334572	28174718	2009-02-28	11.81%	19.73%	0.3882	-	5.76	5.76	1.13	1.05	1.7204	1.337	0.7209	1.7906	0.6408	16.8%	36	52	75
2009-01-19	2009	1	6.65	5.6	-	3.82%	3.82%	7414600	7414600	772700	772700	944100	944100	0.2178	0.2178	70329900	45594100	108100	24735800	778100	630000	365400	5385900	148100	217300	5168600	4334604	4334604	26224354	2008-11-30	10.42%	-	0.3715	-	5.68	5.68	1.07	1.2	1.6978	1.3448	0.7571	1.8513	0.6483	18.3%	38	56	86
2008-10-16	2008	4	6.85	5.8	0.1	1.10%	10.07%	6743100	24755300	275200	3025200	282900	2594000	0.0653	0.5984	69841900	44080000	104700	25761900	7341400	4036400	3200300	5279200	3305000	104700	5383900	4335183	4335183	28612207	2008-08-31	4.08%	-	0.3568	11.0301	5.92	5.92	1.11	1.25	1.6755	1.3407	0.8113	1.718	0.6311	18.1%	38	51	93
2008-07-24	2008	3	8.55	6.0	-	1.14%	11.00%	5997400	18012200	440100	3301800	299300	2878300	0.0690	0.6609	68853900	42685700	103100	26168200	4855800	2652000	2782900	5285300	2203800	579100	4706200	4335006	4354806	34896798	2008-05-31	7.34%	32.72%	0.353	-	5.99	5.99	1.34	1.09	1.8211	1.4098	0.805	1.6377	0.6199	19.8%	44	53	84
2008-04-14	2008	2	9.1	6.55	0.1	4.05%	9.82%	5972500	12014800	1217700	2861700	1064100	2579000	0.2443	0.5922	68500500	42230800	106300	26269700	3657000	1753800	2063200	5289200	1903200	160000	5129200	4355034	4354902	30485238	2008-02-29	20.39%	12.12%	0.3535	-	6.01	6.01	1.16	1.18	1.8357	1.4656	0.8897	1.6141	0.6165	20.0%	40	48	80
2008-01-15	2008	1	10.0	6.6	-	5.90%	5.90%	6208300	6208300	1644500	1644500	1515400	1515400	0.3480	0.3480	68131200	42461500	100300	25669700	1738600	763100	1205700	5285500	975500	230200	5055300	4354080	4354080	43323096	2008-11-30	26.49%	7.73%	0.3512	-	5.87	5.87	1.7	1.17	1.7543	1.3971	0.8487	1.6606	0.6232	18.9%	41	48	86
2007-10-25	2007	4	10.4	8.65	0.163	0.70%	16.84%	6126000	23320400	330000	4763600	168900	4058800	0.0387	0.9300	67724600	43627700	98300	24096900	9865200	4778400	3730200	3942700	5086800	1356600	5299300	4363671	4364146	49745849	2007-08-31	5.39%	57.48%	0.3443	12.2576	5.5	5.5	2.07	1.22	1.5062	1.2448	0.7863	1.8179	0.6442	14.7%	35	46	90
2007-07-13	2007	3	N/A	N/A	0.1	4.48%	15.94%	5910700	17194400	1447800	4433600	1091800	3889900	0.2502	0.8920	67507300	43111400	156400	24395900	7268100	2831200	2652500	3925800	4436900	1784400	5710200	4363648	4361117	50618316	2007-05-31	24.49%	23.66%	0.338	-	5.56	5.56	2.09	1.31	1.5268	1.2683	0.8045	1.7786	0.6386	16.5%	38	52	90
2007-04-16	2007	2	N/A	N/A	0.1	6.65%	11.96%	5682000	11283700	1651800	2985800	1555500	2798100	0.3570	0.6427	66980000	43594000	142900	23386000	4458300	1728200	1822600	3929700	2730100	907500	4837200	4357608	4353838	52291296	2007-02-28	29.07%	4.62%	0.2524	-	5.34	5.34	2.25	1.12	1.4921	1.1942	0.6709	1.8756	0.6509	21.1%	60	81	120
2007-01-25	2007	1	N/A	N/A	-	5.73%	5.73%	5601700	5601700	1347600	1347600	1256200	1256200	0.2903	0.2903	66618300	44694200	122900	21924100	2304100	748400	285000	3933500	1555700	1270700	5204200	4327563	4327563	52796268	2006-11-30	24.06%	6.66%	0.1685	-	5.04	5.04	2.42	1.21	1.3883	1.1234	0.6695	2.0501	0.6709	27.0%	85	114	171
2006-10-12	2006	4	N/A	N/A	0.14	3.80%	11.06%	5620300	20384200	801300	2791100	741900	2161200	0.1733	0.5056	65092100	45545600	121300	19546500	7632900	3709400	2802700	2828900	3923500	1120800	3949700	4280802	4274852	42165899	2006-08-31	14.26%	6.26%	0.0863	19.4833	4.54	4.54	2.17	0.93	1.4062	1.1163	0.5959	2.3447	0.6997	48.2%	153	225	313

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet

year	qrt	Available-for-sale financial assets (A-0)	Coal mining rights (A-0)	Deferred tax assets (A-0)	Derivative assets (A-0)	Investment in associated companies (A-0)	Join venture (A-0)	Prepaid operating lease (A-0)	Property, plant and equipment (A-0)	Amount due from associated companies (A-1)	Amount due from jointly controlled entity (A-1)	Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)	Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)	Current tax assets (A-1)	Inventories (A-1)	Marketable securities (A-1)	Other investments (A-1)	Other receivables (A-1)	Trade receivables (A-1)	Consumer deposits (L-0)	Deferred income (L-0)	Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)	Derivative liabilities (L-0)	Employee benefits (L-0)	Government grant (L-0)	Loans & borrowings (L-0)	Other liabilities (L-0)	Amount due to associated companies (L-1)	Current tax liabilities (L-1)	Loans & borrowings (L-1)	Other payables (L-1)	Trade and other payables (L-1)	Minority interest (M-1)
2011	1	38100	-	51400	61900	305900	-	-	58666600	6600	-	9248900	18000	11900	2474800	9000	124300	1262800	2549200	2945000	3107700	6843700	56400	3962600	601400	17489800	217000	623400	482000	3791900	1729100	3338800	37600
2010	4	38000	-	55900	-	296400	-	-	58895300	5700	-	8343700	18000	15200	2450400	8600	72500	1413800	2467600	2903900	3042200	6837100	-	3866300	599000	18100900	216400	623600	317600	3162700	1727100	3869800	35600
2010	3	38000	-	-	-	290400	15200	861900	57810200	5400	14700	7965500	18400	10700	2267500	8700	72500	1228200	2669500	2848800	3010100	6819100	-	3706200	629400	20706700	179500	588600	450300	865600	1555700	3533000	35000
2010	2	38000	-	-	-	287700	7700	822500	57745400	6100	14700	7072500	18500	11900	2219000	8600	72500	1320200	3068800	2795500	2981500	6731000	-	3626900	675800	21440300	165800	424700	533700	940700	1445900	3494600	32800
2010	1	38000	-	-	-	277300	7600	830500	57971800	8500	5700	6656800	17400	16400	2090900	8500	12600	1258600	2794500	2752600	2966300	6665400	-	3551600	587100	21262000	173900	505000	390700	1116200	2022900	3574700	31400
2009	4	38000	-	-	-	297300	7900	833600	58227400	9200	-	6163900	19600	15400	1955700	8300	12600	1306300	2467800	2717300	2952200	6640400	-	3470600	579800	21458100	235500	294000	206900	1157900	1454300	4149700	40200
2009	3	38000	-	-	-	293300	-	839300	57806300	46100	-	5093300	50100	16400	2282300	7800	12600	1284000	2410200	2673100	2959100	6573300	-	3384600	543900	21334800	214300	445700	211000	1160900	1441500	3303200	71100
2009	2	38000	-	-	-	284200	-	844600	57692200	47200	-	4525300	30300	15600	2417100	6800	12600	1398200	2393000	2634300	2927000	6515500	-	3309300	541300	22198000	240600	389300	52700	1231500	1289600	3341200	88000
2009	1	38000	-	-	-	330300	-	837700	57490300	45500	-	5168600	14100	15000	2418700	6700	12600	1505300	2447100	2592600	2918000	6394700	-	3219500	552500	22803400	261300	369200	77100	1219100	1659000	3527700	108100
2008	4	38000	-	-	-	322500	-	844100	57475200	46100	-	5383900	14100	14400	2230300	8500	12600	1366700	2085500	2551900	2899400	6337400	-	3124800	563600	21682100	258900	346800	69400	1058300	1187700	3999700	104700
2008	3	38000	-	-	-	311000	-	849600	56957200	46200	-	4706200	16300	10800	2416300	10500	12600	1484500	1994700	2490900	2861200	6224100	-	3033000	577900	21487900	136100	231200	216800	1026900	1225200	3174500	103100
2008	2	38000	-	-	-	250400	-	854000	56726200	45900	-	5129200	119100	9900	2143600	11000	12600	1440300	1720300	2421900	2845200	6099800	-	2930200	592100	21413500	136300	207800	406700	1101100	995500	3080700	106300
2008	1	38000	-	-	-	240500	-	860500	56493000	45500	-	5055300	114100	10500	2137700	11400	12600	1352500	1759600	2365500	2824300	6073700	-	2829900	606300	21635800	141300	223000	393600	1127500	1211600	3029000	100300
2007	4	38000	-	-	-	233000	-	852600	56405300	45300	-	5299300	125000	11600	1769500	10600	12600	1372200	1549600	2319600	2803500	6274400	-	2730600	620500	21963900	145900	226100	226100	2015500	1067900	3233700	98300
2007	3	38000	271900	-	-	228900	-	858700	55226400	46000	-	5710200	41400	9500	1842100	11900	12600	1450600	1759100	2232600	2758500	6098800	-	2624300	631600	21559300	77900	197700	786900	1936500	1622300	2585000	156400
2007	2	38000	274500	-	-	219000	-	848600	54789300	44500	-	4837200	40700	8700	2158700	10800	12600	1605500	2091900	2188100	2714500	6048300	-	2525300	642800	22150700	79200	209500	591500	2335200	1538500	2570400	142900
2007	1	38000	277200	-	-	200200	-	164800	55100300	44100	-	5204200	41400	8500	2068400	9900	12600	1544800	1903900	2186700	2691100	6248900	-	2426900	653900	22609400	71000	209400	368600	3297500	1541800	2389000	122900
2006	4	38000	279900	-	-	200600	-	856800	54344500	43600	-	3949700	-	10000	1931800	9200	12600	1563300	1852100	2147700	2675800	6424600	-	2314100	665000	24580900	72300	212400	184600	2534700	1244700	2488800	121300

Financial Quarter Income Statement

year	qrt	Revenue	Income tax expense	Finance/interest costs	Other income	Administrative/Operating expenses	Minority interest	Finance/interest income	Share of profit/ (loss) of associates	Foreign exchange (loss)/gain	After tax effect of interest savings on UCRIS	After-tax effect of interest expense on Guaranteed Exchangeable Bonds	Share of net profit of jointly controlled entity
2011	1	7726400	282700	249100	84600	6557600	2000	89100	10700	106300	-	-	200
2010	4	7869400	110900	276500	96200	7249200	600	67500	17400	25100	-	-	200
2010	3	7723300	177500	263500	105300	6924100	2200	53800	18900	573200	-	-	100
2010	2	7389100	260800	270900	98000	6166500	1400	47500	12600	152400	-	-	100
2010	1	7338300	275600	260000	82800	6179900	8800	40900	4500	44500	-	-	-
2009	4	7462600	126700	281100	92900	6819500	30900	41900	5900	242600	-	-	-
2009	3	7001800	234500	273700	107400	6198000	17300	32300	9100	561400	-	-	-
2009	2	6906600	160900	286800	100500	5846200	20100	51300	10300	120300	-	-	-
2009	1	7414600	168000	285200	56400	6580200	3400	51600	7800	1437700	-	-	-
2008	4	6743100	6100	250500	108000	6638200	1600	46500	11500	295600	-	-	-
2008	3	5997400	144000	275200	222800	5362500	3200	50200	9400	202500	500	-	-
2008	2	5972500	147600	280100	99600	4930800	6000	51000	14600	290000	900	-	-
2008	1	6208300	127100	290000	216700	4742600	2000	-	9400	242200	500	-	-
2007	4	6126000	189700	338200	186500	5109700	28600	-	8900	544000	500	0	-
2007	3	5910700	342500	329200	140600	4716800	13500	-	10300	432100	100	0	-
2007	2	5682000	76300	323400	123600	4292200	20000	-	23500	437600	700	0	-
2007	1	5601700	89800	314200	143000	4252700	1600	-	300	160100	3200	6800	-
2006	4	5620300	50200	344400	161700	4597100	9200	-	8600	53300	-	5500	-

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables

CURRENT

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
●ANNUAL REPORTS

HISTORICAL

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

ARCHIVES

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

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1-Year Historical Daily Chart


5-Year Historical Weekly Chart