Company Info
My Analysis
Research House
Accounting Ratio
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The higher increase in pre-tax profit as compared to the increase in revenue was mainly attributed to the higher pre-tax profit contributed by Berjaya Philippines Inc. group
- Sports Toto, the principal subsidiary, recorded a slight drop in revenue and pre-tax profit of 3.0% and 1.1% respectively as compared to previous year corresponding quarter. The decrease in revenue was mainly due to the current quarter having less draws as compared to the previous year corresponding quarter. On a per draw basis, revenue for the current quarter was 1.5% higher than the previous year corresponding quarter. The lower drop in pre-tax profit as compared to the decrease in revenue was mainly due to lower prize payout in the current quarter under review even though the favourable effect was partially offset by the impact of the increase in Pool Betting Duty from 6% to 8% that was effective 1 June 2010
- The impact on the current quarter from the increase in Pool Betting Duty from 6% to 8% that was effective 1 June 2010 was mitigated by the reduction in the 4D Big Special Prize from RM200 to RM180 per RM1 bet with effect from 15 December 2010
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0859+0.0487)*2*1.05 = 0.2827, estimate PE on current price 4.29 = 14.61(DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0487*4*1.05 = 0.2045, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.27/18.97 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2889*0.8 = 0.2311, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.83/17.05 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2889*0.9 = 0.26(10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.19/14.58 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0729*4 = 0.2916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.09/13.34 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0762*4 = 0.3048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.65/12.53 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0797*4 = 0.3188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.21/12.08 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0854*4 = 0.3416, but this is too high, so use last 3 years average eps = (0.3268+0.276+0.2905)/3 = 0.2978, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.66/13.26 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0773*4 = 0.3092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.33/13.97 (DPS 0.26)
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| Market Capital (Capital Size) | 5,795,919,008 (Very Large) |
| Par Value | RM 0.10 |
My Analysis
| Forecast P/E now | (4.29-0.16)/0.2827 = 14.61 (Moderate) |
| Target Price | 4.52+0.16 = 4.68 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.2827, DPS 0.16) |
| Decision | BUY |
| Comment | Revenue increased 0.6% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.9%, eps increased 76.4% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 79.7%, cash generated from operating is not enough to cover financing activities, liquidity ratio improving but still at low level, gearing ratio improving but still at very high level, all accounting periods are good, reduced betting prize payout, profit largely increased from Berjaya Philippines Inc. group |
| First Support Price | 4.15 |
| Second Support Price | 4.0 |
| Risk Rating | MODERATE |
Research House
| AMMB Target Price | 4.6 (2011-03-16) |
| ECM Target Price | 4.56 (2011-03-16) |
| OSK Target Price | 4.65 (2011-03-16) |
| TA Target Price | 4.25 (2011-03-16) |
Accounting Ratio
| Return on Equity | 71.99% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.06% |
| Profit Margin | 18.97% |
| Tax Rate | 27.11% |
| Asset Turnover | 2.5522 |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 0.32 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | -0.16 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | -25.56 |
| Cash Per Share | 0.25 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 1.4557 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 1.4339 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 1.015 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 2.0766 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.6636 |
| Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 4.4% |
| Days to sell the inventory | 1 |
| Days to collect the receivables | 15 |
| Days to pay the payables | 39 |
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The higher increase in pre-tax profit as compared to the increase in revenue was mainly attributed to the higher pre-tax profit contributed by Berjaya Philippines Inc. group
- Sports Toto, the principal subsidiary, recorded a slight drop in revenue and pre-tax profit of 3.0% and 1.1% respectively as compared to previous year corresponding quarter. The decrease in revenue was mainly due to the current quarter having less draws as compared to the previous year corresponding quarter. On a per draw basis, revenue for the current quarter was 1.5% higher than the previous year corresponding quarter. The lower drop in pre-tax profit as compared to the decrease in revenue was mainly due to lower prize payout in the current quarter under review even though the favourable effect was partially offset by the impact of the increase in Pool Betting Duty from 6% to 8% that was effective 1 June 2010
- The impact on the current quarter from the increase in Pool Betting Duty from 6% to 8% that was effective 1 June 2010 was mitigated by the reduction in the 4D Big Special Prize from RM200 to RM180 per RM1 bet with effect from 15 December 2010
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0859+0.0487)*2*1.05 = 0.2827, estimate PE on current price 4.29 = 14.61(DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0487*4*1.05 = 0.2045, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.27/18.97 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2889*0.8 = 0.2311, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.83/17.05 (DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2889*0.9 = 0.26(10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.19/14.58 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0729*4 = 0.2916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.09/13.34 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0762*4 = 0.3048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.65/12.53 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0797*4 = 0.3188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.21/12.08 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0854*4 = 0.3416, but this is too high, so use last 3 years average eps = (0.3268+0.276+0.2905)/3 = 0.2978, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.66/13.26 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0773*4 = 0.3092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.33/13.97 (DPS 0.26)
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