KLCI Stock - TDM / 2054 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	664,393,203 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.89-0.135)/0.3766 = 7.32 (Moderate)
Target Price	3.01+0.135 = 3.15 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.3766, DPS 0.135)
Decision	NOT BUY unless CPO price increasing
Comment	Revenue increased 23.1% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 39%, eps increased 16% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 51%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all payments & investing activities, improving liquidity ratio at low level now, improving gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting period improving but payables period still not good, monthly production still low, cpo price decreasing, expanding health division by acquire hospital shares
First Support Price	2.65
Second Support Price	2.35
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	12.84%
Dividend Yield	4.67%
Profit Margin	37.60%
Tax Rate	33.50%
Asset Turnover	0.454
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.18
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.17
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.96
Cash Per Share	0.78
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.6679
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.5726
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.1532
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.2787
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2136
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	24.3%
Days to sell the inventory	18
Days to collect the receivables	56
Days to pay the payables	183

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Plantation Division increase in profit before tax compared to the same period last year mainly
due to:
a) Higher CPO and PK production by 10% and 7% respectively.
b) Higher average CPO and PK prices by 33% and 52%.

- Healthcare Division recorded better result compared to the same period last year mainly contributed by the increased in patient number by 28%

- Food Division recorded loss due to lower average prices achieved as a result of weakened demand for processed birds

- The favourable performance of current quarter compared to preceding quarter is due to higher CPO production by 9% and higher average CPO price by 18%

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4184*0.9 = 0.3766, estimate PE on current price 2.89 = 7.32(DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.23/5.75 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0933*4 = 0.3732(0.0933 is average of eps in FY10Q1 and FY09Q4), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.54/4.82 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0889*4 = 0.3556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/4.16 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2503*1.2 = 0.3004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.23/5.13 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = (0.0923+0.0418+0.019)/3*4*1.2 = 0.245, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.37/5.51 (DPS 0.14)

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